"Heaps a victim of Unga’s saga, but shouldn’t be"

[Mars]

MARS - if U were capable of following anything very closely, U would realize that Heaps and Nelson were not calling the plays. Someone else, who wanted to check out certain situations called those plays and they called for Heaps to throw more and Nelson to run or hand off more. Bottom line - Nelson was asked to pass half as often cuz somebody wanted to see him do something else.

Ah, my English-as-a-second-language Cougarboard troll, you once again don't understand what's going on. Nelson gets more running plays called for him, but he also opts out of passing plays waaay too often to settle for a short run that's his comfort zone. And that's the issue here. He did it extremely frequently in scrub play last year, and he did it in Spring camp as well. He runs when he is asked to pass, and that leads to punts. And that's why Heaps had DOUBLE the touchdowns. Which is the only real point of the QB, at the end of the day.

[Cougarbib]

Unlike U mars - I am going to go ahead and trust that Coach Mendenhall, Coach Doman, and the rest of the staff will be able to assess the extent to which Nelson did what he was expected to do on each play. And I will trust that the coaches have talked to the players about what they expect them to do and where they need to improve and will provide opportunities to show if that improvement has actually happened. Iirc, that is why they have Spring practice, have the players work together during the summer and then - oh yeah - they have Fall camp to develop players even further. Kind of a nice concept. And then at some point, they have seen enough to make the call.

If I were the coach, and I am not, I probably would not have a player run a bunch of plays I am already comfortable with his abilities on - would probably run a bunch that would help him develop and improve instead.

Regarding experience and leadership comments - Nelson has more D1 experience cuz Heaps has NONE - not that Nelson has a ton. To recap - Nelson played at USU for a year including some starts as a true freshman. He went on a mission - hopefully matured - hopefully gained some leadership skills like many missionaries do - came home and switched to BYU. At BYU he sat out, but hung around. He was part of summer player activities and observed BYU leaders. Done that a couple of times now. That is experience Heaps does not have as was the USU game experience. Then Nelson had a drib and drab of game experience last year and that is about it. Not much - but quite a bit more than NONE.

So think of Doman - prior to geting his shot. Nelson has more experience than Doman had before Doman reeled off 14 or so straight victories. Of course Doman had Staley - Nelson, or Heaps, or Lark, or Munns will not.

So counting

D1 on-the-field playing time (USU and BYU) - experience edge goes clearly to Nelson.
Practcing with a D1 team (USU and BYU) - experience edge goes clearly to Nelson.
Years in BYU program and familiarity with coaches and system - experience edge clearly goes to Nelson
Hanging around spring drills, summer player development, fall camps to know what is expected of players and leaders - edge clearly goes to Nelson

Does this make Nelson as ready as Hall, Beck, Sark, Detmer, etc. in their senior years - HECK NO! He does not have SENIOR experience. Comparing him to Juniors - he has more experience than most juniors that first started as a junior at BYU - I am not talking about McMahon, Detmer, Beck, and Hall who played substantially as a freshman or sophmore. I am comparing his experience to Bosco, Young, Doman, Sark, and others as a junior. Am I saying he is as talented as those guys - I HAVE NO IDEA IF HE IS.

Quite frankly, Bosco was quite a pleasant surprise as was Doman. Will Nelson be a pleasant surprise - I DON'T KNOW. Neither does MARS.

I am glad we have 4 to pick from instead of none and I trust that Bronco will be fair to everyone and I know that Bronco doesn't give a hoot who MARS thinks should start or whether Mars agrees with his choice - cuz Bronco gets paid to make tough choices. I hope it is a tough choice so we have some depth when one of them sprains an ankle, gets mono, or worse.

Go Cougs

[snoscythe]

Mars, when are you going to stop relying on 7-on-7 statistics to pump up your boy Heaps? When you take the 7-on-7 numbers out and only look at 11-on-11 numbers, Nelson had only slightly fewer pass attempts, but he had more yards AND more touchdowns than Heaps.

I know the 7-on-7 numbers got the media all in a tizzy and look sexy, but Heaps wasn't able to replicate that when they played real football plays, and Nelson outshone him.

Yeah, Heaps had more touchdowns, more attempts and more yards in toto, but who cares about the 7-on-7 numbers? That's like determining your starting runningback based on the 40 yard times. Yeah, it has some relevancy to the position, but only to the degree it translates to performance. Heaps' 7-on-7 skills he has honed through years of summer football camps haven't translated to 11-on-11 drills to the point he has outperformed Nelson. He's nearly there, but Nelson still has the statistical edge in the football drills that most resemble what will be going on come Saturdays this Fall.

Add to that consideration the fact that the coaches had acknowledged Nelson is the better leader and the current void in leadership on offense after Unga's departure, and I think Heaps would have to absolutely blow people away this Fall (in 11-on-11 work) to get the nod. Otherwise, redshirt the kid and let him learn. If he's really all that, a redshirt year will make him all that much better, and it also means that Nelson is "all that" as well since he beat him out for the job heads-up.

[jonnylingo]

It looks to me that Nelson has the edge right now after the Unga loss. there is a higher premium on experience and leadership now that he is gone. nelson has more of that than heaps.

even if nelson starts, he won't fend of heaps for long. heaps will be starting at some point this season I would imagine.

I am not really high on the idea of throwing heaps into the first game with washington. if things went bad it could really set him back.

hopefully we will be killing them allowing heaps to come and get some play time in the 4th quarter

[Mars]

Mars, when are you going to stop relying on 7-on-7 statistics to pump up your boy Heaps? When you take the 7-on-7 numbers out and only look at 11-on-11 numbers, Nelson had only slightly fewer pass attempts, but he had more yards AND more touchdowns than Heaps.

You were asked to prove this and you couldn't. So you have no point to make here.

[SpiffCoug]

These are the only stats we have to go on and they're incomplete. During spring ball, during 11v11 drills here's what each QB did. Notice, there are no interceptions listed, although both threw some. And this does not account for drives that ended in rushing scores.

Jake Heaps 62-of-105 for 774 yards and 7 touchdowns
Riley Nelson 29-of-51 for 389 yards and 5 touchdowns

Since we don't have INTs, their passer ratings aren't truly accurate but they are as follows:
Nelson 153.29
Heaps 142.97

So, Nelson was actually the more efficient passer. Even if he doesn't throw a better ball.

Even though we're about three months from the season opener, here's how I see the QB race shaping up, based on published reports and my own observations at spring ball.

Leadership: edge Nelson
QB efficiency: edge Nelson
D1 experience: edge Nelson
Talent & Upside: edge Heaps
Pure passer: edge Heaps
"Success-ability" in the BYU system: push
More wins in 2010 as the starter: push
My own spring ball observations: push

It's a tight race and the coaches have a very difficult decision to make. I just keep coming back to two questions:
1) Have I seen anything from Nelson to make me believe he simply can't get the job done as the starter?
2) Have I seen something from Heaps to make me believe he is only one who can get the job done as the starter?

And from what I've read and seen, the answer to both of those is, "No." I haven't seen anything from Riley to make me think he can't/won't be successful. And I haven't seen anything from Jake to make me think he's the only one who can be successful.

[snoscythe]

Mars, when are you going to stop relying on 7-on-7 statistics to pump up your boy Heaps? When you take the 7-on-7 numbers out and only look at 11-on-11 numbers, Nelson had only slightly fewer pass attempts, but he had more yards AND more touchdowns than Heaps.

You were asked to prove this and you couldn't. So you have no point to make here.

Looks like Kitic provided them--I misremembered the attempts since the last time we had this discussion I think I broke it down into yards per attempt and completion.

Not everyone makes up numbers Mars. Hard to believe, I know.

[SpiffCoug]

So not only does Nelson have a better passer rating, and a higher TD% (9.8% vs 6.6%) he also has a higher yard per attempt (7.6 vs 7.4) and yard per completion (13.4 vs 12.5) as well.

People can pretend all they want that Heaps is a better QB, but the numbers just don't back up that opinion.

That said, I still fully believe Heaps will wind up being the better QB at BYU. I just don't think that it will be in 2010.

[Brayden Green]

Here we go again... Experience, experience, experience.

Yeah a D-minus is waaay better than an F. Go ahead and keep touting your "experience". Those 8 starts almost five years ago for USU (quite possibly ThE WORST TEAM IN FOOTBALL at the time) are really going to give us a big edge. And him hanging around the team for a couple years because he was never good enough to be our starter (and still isn't - that's beside the point), yeah that'll be a game-decider for sure.

NELSON wouldn't have even seen any ANY game time last year if the class act of the century, Brendan Gaskins, didn't step TO THE SIDE. So he was our 3rd string qb last year. GO EXPERIENCE!!!

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[SpiffCoug]

I'm not saying that Nelson's handful of starts several years ago and being a part of the team are the end all and be all of reasons why he should start. But they are factors.

For you to simply discount them because they don't back up your argument is faulty logic.

And guess what, Nelson did see time last year. The reason why he was the back up (Gaskins acquiescing to him) is irrelevant to the fact that he WAS the back up. To state that he was our third string QB last year is simply inaccurate and flat out wrong, because he clearly wasn't.

Would it please you if I had simply said "slight edge Nelson" on the experience factor? Because that's really all it is.

And I still haven't seen anyone give me any real reasons, pointing to real numbers that Heaps is clearly the #1 QB for the 2010 season. The numbers from spring ball don't show it. His experience doesn't show it. His leadership during the off-season isn't showing it (as demonstrated by reports this week that Nelson is the one leading the charge).

Heaps is going to be a very good player. And I'm more than willing to be patient with him. I just don't see him winning any more games for us than Nelson does. But I do think a red-shirt could potentially lead to more wins in some seasons in the future if he's allowed to develop.

So I still come back to my two main questions:
1) Have I seen anything from Nelson to make me believe he can't get the job done in 2010?
2) Have I seen anything from Heaps to make me believe he's the only one who can get the job done?

My answer to both those questions is "no." What's yours?