Political Polling Oct 10, 2016
Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:41 pm
I apologize in advance for no graphics. They are on a different computer that I will not have access until tomorrow. I was able to run to run the first round of analysis for this week. There might be some small tweaks when I get the graphics posted and I will note what they are.
As the polling currently stands, Mr. Trump has a 0% chance of winning, and there is no chance of a tie. (0 out of 100,000 simulated elections. This is the worst showing Mr. Trump has had since I started doing the simulations.) HRC lowest electoral count this week was 273 and she averaged 340. The 340 votes puts her between the amount of votes President Obama received in his two campaigns.
This change is concerning as most of the polls were taken before the locker room comments from Mr. Trump were made public and the second presidential debate. Things may continue to shift way from Mr. Trump.
Among the changes that were seen include North Carolina moving to Lean Hillary, Ohio and Arizona are now toss-ups and Indiana is now only lean Trump.
As polls come in this week, we will see if Mr. Trump can make up any ground that he has lost. In all likelihood, Trump has lost any chance of beating Hillary. The only way that changes if there is some major bomb dropped on the Clinton campaign (with large parts of the media covering for her, that is doubtful.)
As the polling currently stands, Mr. Trump has a 0% chance of winning, and there is no chance of a tie. (0 out of 100,000 simulated elections. This is the worst showing Mr. Trump has had since I started doing the simulations.) HRC lowest electoral count this week was 273 and she averaged 340. The 340 votes puts her between the amount of votes President Obama received in his two campaigns.
This change is concerning as most of the polls were taken before the locker room comments from Mr. Trump were made public and the second presidential debate. Things may continue to shift way from Mr. Trump.
Among the changes that were seen include North Carolina moving to Lean Hillary, Ohio and Arizona are now toss-ups and Indiana is now only lean Trump.
As polls come in this week, we will see if Mr. Trump can make up any ground that he has lost. In all likelihood, Trump has lost any chance of beating Hillary. The only way that changes if there is some major bomb dropped on the Clinton campaign (with large parts of the media covering for her, that is doubtful.)