The Bronco-UVA reality

[Yzzazz]

I stand with Hawkwing and others who tip their hat to Bronco and honor him for the things he's done in his decade at BYU. He has earned every bit of the respect UVA is paying him in recruiting him and paying him that kind of money. Personally, I think they are getting a bargain.

I will greatly miss the fact that under Bronco, no BYU fan had to feel apologetic about being a devout mormon, nor did they have to keep it under their hat for fear of offending. Even LaVell couldn't accomplish that.

But a much bigger observation seems to be missed this past week, I least I haven't run across it yet, so with apologies for what I might have missed, I thought I'd take my lunch break to point out what appears to me obvious, but overlooked:

BYU is not a big-time program. They aren't even a Power 5 school. It is sad, and I among others have been in denial about it for years, but this move makes this fact irrefutably true. If you think I'm trying to simply dis the program then you don't know my history as a poster. That's not it. This reality is economic mostly, though it is partially influenced by ideology. Meanwhile, with Bronco's departure, there is a possibility that it could be changed.

Let's start with this little mispriced observation from the Richmond VA newspaper:

How much is a national championship worth? The contract agreed to last week by the University of Virginia and new Cavaliers football coach Bronco Mendenhall answers that question: $1 million

Perhaps the article should have stated that this is the wholesale value of a national champtionship, or perhaps even the cost basis of one, but the unadulterated gross value in increased revenues for the Cavalier football team, the University and the community at large is undeniably worth much, much more than that. One million is merely how much of the profit they are willing to give to the coach, and only AFTER he reels in the big one.

That Virginia believes Bronco can accomplish that for them is not evidenced by the 1 million bonus they are giving him, it can be better counted in the 8 million dollars MORE that they will end up paying him over and above his BYU salary over the next five years. In effect, UVa is ponying up 9 million for Bronco to win a championship for them. Again, that is the part they are willing to share. The true value of this championship is much, much, more than that.

Which is why BYU is not a P5 school. The reality is that another championship for the cougars is not nearly as capable of being exploited and capitalized in Utah Valley and greater Mormondom as it would be at a school like Virginia or most of the other P5 schools (no, I'm not blind, I'm not including Iowa State, for example, in that list of other P5 schools, but I am counting Vanderbilt.)

Consider the beer endorsement revenues alone. These programs are meant to be a minor league for that biggest of sports enterprises in the world, the ultimate-fat heavyweight of moneybaggers: the NFL. The NFL is so valuable that its minor league (the P5 portion of the NCAA D1-A), along with a little community pride, rivals the NBA in revenue and interest across the nation.

These schools are locked in a high-stakes gamble that requires them to spend untold revenues at getting pre-NFL level talent into the stadium before that talent can get paid anything worthwhile. Its a bad system to be sure, and one that BYU is morally unaligned with. And there's the rub.

Bronco never seriously tried make NFL entry a serious point of his program. I doubt he'll be able to carry that attitude going forward. If he does, he'll become one of the highest paid failures in recent memory.

Meanwhile, the scarcity of pre-NFL talent showed up increasingly each year under Bronco, culminating with the fact that Utah actually beat Michigan and BYU lost by a shutout just three weeks later. I thought Michigan's success was a statistical outlier at first but as the year wore on it was obvious that Michigan was simply that good. But why then was BYU unable to hang with them when Utah beat them. Was it just that Utah got lucky and got them early? If that were true, then Michigan shouldn't have lost another game. But they did. Twice!

No the answer was more simple. Our trophy receivers might be tall, but they are slow and comparatively weak. They were easily pushed around by shorter, albeit faster and stronger DBs in Michigan's secondary--guys that will be playing on Sunday soon enough.

Bronco came to realize he could not realistically expect to recruit that calibre of player. So he designed a system he could use that would work with just the players he did have. He outperformed, to be sure, but even the system had its limits.

Which leaves, literally, BYU and its fans back in the dust. Independence is a nice step up and out of the MW or WAC, the ESPN detail made that clear, but unless the next coach can solve the riddle of making future NFL players compatible with the BYU campus and culture, the economics have spoken the truth: BYU will never achieve its fans fondest dreams of winning a national championship.

[stuckinbig10country]

I agree with a lot of what you said. However, had BYU had their most NFL ready athlete against Michigan, it's not a shutout. Also, if BYU didn't have a QB whose knowledge of the play book severely hampered the types of plays that could be called, it's probably not a shutout.

But yes, the rest is a great outline of where the program is. And it's still really good. Outside of Boise St (who will likely start to lose its luster), BYU is the most respected non P5. But they need a huge influx of cash.

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[KingCoug]

The only reason BYU isn't a P5 team is because we haven't been invited. Any objective observer would admit that BYU is on the level of many P5 teams and better than some of them.

What we're not is one of those elite teams. I think we could hang with the middle of the pack in most P5 conferences but being at the top probably wouldn't happen all that often.

The disparity in recruiting has always been a fact of life at BYU. But I continue to believe a great coach can bridge the talent gap, to a large degree, with superior preparation and scheme.

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[YNot]

Here's how I perceive BYU's spot in the college football landscape:

Recruiting: C

We usually rank #60-70, out of 128 teams - behind the lion's share of P5 schools and a pretty good handful of non-P5. We occasionally get one or two 4-star guys and rarely have a shot at 5-star recruits. We generally have a solid handful (6-10) of 3-star guys, and fill in the rest of the class with "BYU guys." Walkons get playing time frequently.

Elite programs fill the roster with 4 and 5-star athletes and fill in the rest of the class with 3-star recruits. Even top-25 recruiting classes have 6 or 7 4-star athletes and twice as many 3-star guys as BYU usually gets.

Obviously, the honor code implications affect BYU's ability to recruit. I think our "best ever" class was ranked #40.

Facilities: B

We have a relatively new indoor practice facility, a nice student athlete building with great workout and training rooms and offices and a nice Hall of Fame, and an aged 64K-seat stadium. Elite programs have 90-100K-seat stadiums and state-of-art practice and training facilities.

Fan Support: B

We usually rank in the top-30 for home game attendance - top-half of the P5....and easily the best non-P5, by about 15-20K per game. We "travel" well, with many of our opponents seeing an uptick of 5-10K attendance when they host us. Our fan-base is similar to Elite programs in that we are genuinely spread across the nation - just not the same masses of numbers achieved by Ohio St., Michigan, Texas, Alabama, etc.

TV Ratings: C+

We are consistently in the top-5 of non-P5 television ratings; however, when compared to the P5, we fall in the bottom 10-20% of that group. We have enough clout to get our own deal with ESPN and to get most of our games on national television; but a good portion of those games are Friday and late Saturday night time slots. It takes a great opponent to get us into the 3:30 Saturday or primetime TV slots.

Resources: C+

We good pretty good revenue from ticket sales - often reaching 60K+ home game attendance. We also have the ESPN deal which easily sets us apart and above any other non-P5 institution. So, only the non-P5 that get a substantial subsidy from their universities' general fund compete with BYU when it comes to resources and budgets.

However, we aren't part of a conference that deals out $20+ million to its members each year. When you even out the ticket and sponsorship revenue with the TV-deal/conference payout revenue, BYU still inches ahead of some lower P5 institutions. But, there's no mistake that we fall on the bottom wrung when compared to P5 schools - just look at the world of coaching salaries and you get a clearer picture of where BYU resides.

Another major downpoint is that we have relatively few donors and a fraction of the donation base of elite programs.

Academics: B+

Consistently, BYU ranks in the top-50-100, well ahead many P5 programs and right there with even some AAU institutions. We also have nationally-ranked business and law schools and other graduate programs. But, we aren't AAU - and never will be - and probably will never be seen as an elite-tier academic institution.

Overall: Right on the C+/B- threshold.

This isn't a bad place to be - especially when you consider how many 10-win seasons and top-25 rankings BYU has enjoyed over the last couple of decades - plus the fact that we've reached a bowl game every year for more than a decade.

But, most BYU fans' expectations fall closer to the "A" level.

This just doesn't match reality.

I think BYU can become a solid B level football program. Better donor support and $$$ can help to lead to better recruiting and more resources - which can help with winning and lead to a better TV contract that gives BYU even more resources. But it can be kind of a catch 22 - unless some donors step it up or the new coaching staff is able to improve recruiting and the on-field product with the same resources.

But, if you keep your expectations at the B-minus level, you actually enjoy Cougar football more, even with heart-breaking losses to UCLA and Missouri and barely-wins against Nebraska, Boise St., and SJSU.

[Jerrond]

Unfortunately, an invitation to a P5 conference has more then just football consideration. If it were just about football we would be P5 already. Most other conferences have the attitude that BYU educational opportunities are restricted by the Church ie. not nearly liberal enough. It's unfortunate but that, I believe, is the reality.

[Yzzazz]

Guys you are missing the main point.

Sure you can make rationalizations about how and why BYU players can hang with the other conferences, and YES BYU has an impressive performance, history and potential, and sure if a P5 would just go ahead and invite, then BYU is in. But for the past decade it was Bronco who put us there. Anyone believe another 5 years of Crowton would have made that happen? Another 5 years of LaVell? Here's another one: Kyle Whittingham. Any chance at all Kwhit is able to do as well at the Y as at the U? He knew the answer was No, and so did the Admins at the U. They knew then what is only painfully obvious now.

Bronco's success (and LaVell's early success) masked the fact that BYU is a TOUGH market to make into (what is now known as) a P5 winner, let alone a profitable program. When you put all those magic beans together and count them up on a spreadsheet, one of those spreadsheets run by analysts who work for the B1G or PAC12 to determine the most likely markets to succeed, BYU doesn't add up.

How badly do they miss? THAT is the point. So badly that a team who IS a P5 conference middle-of-the-pack program, can afford to spend 75% more on a successful prospect than BYU can. Hopefully continued success and a more savvy coach can change that, but it looks like we, as fans, are asking for a whole lot more than we realize.

[Stirfry]

The point of the monetary value of a natty is really good and one I hadn't considered. The main points I may differ on are the p5 and the Michigan game. P5 is 65 teams wide not just the top 10 elite schools and so much talk of P5 ignores that there's at minimum 40 unranked P5 schools each year.

As for the Michigan game it reads like you surmise we have no chance and would be better off not going to the bowl game this year. How could we possibly expect to compete with a team so great that they beat Michigan. A Michigan team that shut us out.

I don't know that we'll win but I certainly wouldn't bet on the Utes to wipe the floor with us. They might. And they might look like they did the last few games when they needed a Colorado fumble on the last drive to seal it.


As for your last post of "guys you missed the point" you might be right. If the point was Bronco did an excellent job with a limited resources and exceeded his resources I fully agree. I think most will miss him.
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[Gunk]

BYU is a P5 caliber school. We can beat 50% of P5 schools. Let's not forget we beat every P5 school on our schedule last season.

BYU is not a playoff contender, and I doubt we ever will be.

While some of the reasons for our inability to get to the elite level are accurately outlined above, I think the root cause is a disconnection between what the BoT expects or is willing to accept versus what fans expect and are willing to accept.

In no particular order, for the BoT expectations are:
1) Football is a missionary tool.The primary purpose of the team is to increase exposure of BYU and the church.
2) It's not necessary the team win or compete at a national level. The team just has to be competitive so it stays relevant. It just needs to be part of college football conversations.
3) If BYU cracks into the NY6 bowls or makes the playoffs, that's great and just an added bonus.
4) A clean, well ran program void of HC violations is among the highest priority. Any controversy that may tarnish the PR image of the program is not to be tolerated.

For the fans, expectations are:
1) Entertainment. We watch BYU football because it's fun and enjoyable. It's more of a game to us.
2) We want BYU to compete on a national level.
3) Breaking the NY6 bowls and playoffs is on the wish list. We expect or want BYU to edge closer to competing on a national level. It's natural for any fan of any team to want the team to win - there's some self-identity with the team.
4) We want BYU to run a clean program as that is what we stand for, but understand HC infractions come with the territory. As long as it isn't rape-gate we tend to be okay with infractions.

The expectations don't align. Hence, we don't see the BoT shelling out for coaches. In fact, if BYU were to crack the NY6 bowls or make the playoffs, my guess is the BoT would use that as a proof point that multi-million dollar contracts are not needed. That BYU can compete nationally running a clean and prudent program. The Church isn't a fan of excessiveness, except for when it comes to temples.

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[hawkwing]

Great points, Yzzazz. Lots to think about what you said. I can see there's a lot I definitely agree with.

[BYULV]

I agree that bronco will be missed and has been a great coach (even though I am a little disgruntled on another thread here about the way he is leaving). He has done great things for BYU and BYU football that will be hard to replace.

Another support of the OP is that we keep looking for Coordiantors to move up to fill our head coaching position. When we start recruiting head coaches to fill our head coaching position I think that is a sign we are closing the gap a little. Of course we have to be willing to pony up bigger coaching dollars to make that happen as well.

About the profitability of the program, wasn't there a thread on here earlier this year when we were talking about all the athletic programs and their budgets and how the majority were running in the red. BYU was one of the few theat runs in the black year in and year out.