Losing to Michigan

[Yzzazz]

CC fans have been rightfully cautious in their optimism this year. I think we were vindicated last week when it was pretty clear that BYU was every bit a match for UCLA despite predictions by pundits and point spreads. I was content with the loss until frdbtr played the whatif game and I realized with horror that I'm watching yet another episode of "What could have been for BYU."

But meanwhile I have felt more nervous about the Michigan game than any other. Four weeks in, big crowd at an away game, Michigan is better now than they were when Utah played them, and UCLA exposed a winning game plan: just keep running and play prevent D. In the end, it will beat an underexperienced Tanner Mangum.

I assume Bronco and Anae will shore up the players and not leave those vulnerabilities so easily exploited this week, but there may be a limit to what they can do. I hate to be the one to predict it, and I'd love to be wrong twice in two weeks, but I am predicting that BYU loses to Michigan.

Their running game will not likely be shut down, and the passing game will probably do better than one being run by a true freshman QB. Beyond that its just details.

There will be improvement by Tanner and the offense, but it is too easy to imagine that it will simply not be enough.

UM 31
BYU 27

Tell me why I'm wrong here.

[Lawboy]

You're wrong because UM only scored 28 vs. UNLV. And the only reason they got more against Oregon State is due to how awful on O OSU was.

BYU will be the best offensive team Michigan will have played by far. And they are not a juggernaut on O. In fact, if UM scores 20, I'll be surprised.

BYU 27
MU 17

[redneckjedi]

Michigan's passing offense is awful so far. 194 yards/game, 114.7 PER, 3 TD, 5 INT. We won't be playing the same exotic fronts to try and confuse a young but very talented QB like we did against UCLA. We'll be focusing on the run, and make them execute against our bend-don't-break zone on passing downs. I don't think they have the ability to dink and dunk down the field, and if they go long, we're going to get some picks. I think the tackling will be much better, and we'll have enough guys in the box to plug every gap in the run game. Unless their pass offense gets significantly better, I see Michigan scoring less than any of our opponents.

On offense, with our receivers and just enough protection, I think we can score 24 on just about anyone. Utah doesn't have a fantastic offense, and they scored 24. I think we can match or better that. So, still kind of close, but I see us coming out with a 24-17 type win; better if we continue to win the turnover battle.

[Cougs_Rule]

Bronco is a winner and will adjust accordingly. They may beat us on the pass but Bronco will adjust and not let them beat us on the run--his usual forte.
Harbaugh is licking his chops hoping our run D will suck as bad. UCLA RB >> UM RB. UCLA Run game >>> UM run game. Mora believed in the hype about his QB and lost focus until about the 3rd pick. But, Harbaugh will try run first and often till we stack and then hope to beat us with play action.
Mangum is a winner and I promise is better prepared to handle Adversity than even before. He knows he locked in on his last pass and forced it. He will evolve and even not be so bound up by Anae's stodgy conservative O and trust his WR corps once again.
The biggest factor in this game will be resilience and fatigue. It's been an emotional and crazy month of downs (loss of TH, JW, TT), some off the chart highs, a huge near miss and a lot of travel. Will these guys still have enough in the tank in Q4 to hold onto the lead? Will our D and Olines hold up to physical play?
Most on CC picked this game way too soon on the easiest to hardest poll. This is an easier game than UCLA. But not the fifth hardest game this season. This is Harbaugh. This is week 4. This is the Big House--100,000 strong.
In August I feared BYU would lose this game and I'm not feeling good about a win. But I love my Cougs and can't pick against them. I think they bounce back and win 27-24. go Cougs!!

[blue42]

Okay here is my attempt to swing you back to the win side, and my apologies to Spiff because I stole his idea of comparing to team avgs.

Michigan vs UNLV: (UNLV played No. Illinios and UCLA)
scored fewer points 28 than UNLV gives up 38 -10
more rushing yds 254 than UNLV gives up 229 +25
fewer passing yds 123 than UNLV gives up 306 -183
fewer total yds 377 than UNLV gives up 535 -158

Even though Michigan won they underperformed in 3 offensive categories and barely outperformed in one.

Oregon St: (played San Jose St and Weber St )
Scored more points 35 than Or St gives up 14 +21
more rushing yds 225 than Or St gives up 81 +144
more passing yds 180 than Or St gives up 134 +46
more total yds 405 than Or St gives up 215 +190

Michigan outperformed in all categories but Oregon St really sucks and they played a couple of patsies.

Utah (played Utah St and Fresno St)
scored fewer points 17 than Utah gives up 19 -2
fewer rushing yds 76 than Utah gives up 121 -45
more passing yds 279 than Utah gives up 248 +31
fewer total yds 355 than Utah gives up 369 -14

Again Michigan underperformed 3 of 4 categories but I think they played Utah better than they did UNLV.

How does Michigan's offensive avg stats compare to BYU's defensive avg stats:
Michigan avg 26.7 pts per game BYU gives up 25.3
Michigan avg 185 rushing yds, BYU gives up 162
Michigan avg 194 passing yds, BYU gives up 240
Michigan avg 379 total yds, BYU gives up 402

So who wins this match up? I think BYU's defense does because these numbers Michigan has been putting up is against much inferior teams than BYU has played

How does Michigan's defensive avg stats compare to BYU's offensive avg stats:
Michigan gives up 12.7 pts a game, BYU avg 30.3
Michigan gives up 93 rushing yds, BYU avg 122
Michigan gives up 144 yds passing, BYU avg 310
Michigan gives up 237 total yds, BYU avg 432

Again Michigan hasn't played any offensive powers and BYU has played some very good defensive teams. I think BYU's offense will get close to their game avgs while Michigan has for the most part underperformed offensively against inferior teams. (excluding Oregon St)

I think BYU comes out on top 27-17 (they have to have a bigger margin of victory than the had)

[TulaneVandyRiceCoug]

I'm a fan of the magical 24 point total. I'm not as stat savvy, but I really have a hard time with our offense NOT putting up less than 24 on the Michigan D. And, I highly doubt that our defense will allow more than 24. I say 31 to 21, BYU.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[frdbtr]

I have a nervous feeling in my stomach about this game mainly because my brother is a huge Michigan fan and I will have to endure some good natured ribbing if BYU loses. Having said that, I just don't think Michigan is ready to beat a team as good as BYU is right now. Michigan's offense is a paper tiger, BYU just controlled a much better offense for 3.5 quarters against UCLA and held them to 24 points. Michigan has a very good defense but I think our offense is going to beat their defense and we are going to win. I predict 35-16 BYU.

[KingCoug]

I'm a worrier by nature but I hope that all the arguments for a BYU win will be proven right. I think it will be a tougher game than some may think and here's hoping Bronco and Anae have a solid game plan, are able to adjust as needed, and don't find another situation where they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

If we win, awesome. It's hard to complain about 3-1 through the first 4 games but I still will. "What could have been for BYU" is right.

If we lose, it will be the 2-2 I originally thought was the best we could realistically expect.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[SpiffCoug]

Great job Blue42! I'm way too lazy to do that much work.

[blue42]

Great job Blue42! I'm way too lazy to do that much work.

Thanks Spiff, but I doubt you are too lazy, you come up with great stats.

BTW it took me all day to do this because I was at work and kept getting interrupted by work stuff! (don't tell the boss!)