Taysom Hill PER - Biggest Irony

[YNot]

My guess:

Taysom Hill's 8.3 yards per carry is the best ever for a QB.

I haven't fully researched it out, but it is EASILY the best per carry average in the last decade for a QB. And would have been the best for anyone in most seasons.

[SpiffCoug]

I have included Taysom's rushing numbers in his PER (I gave him incompletions for his negative yard runs or runs for 0 yards)

This would be his PER:
75 of 162 for 964 yards 4 TDs 3 INTs PER of 100.73.

Still abysmal

[Cougarbib]

Spiff

Are you really going to make me solve my own riddle?

Answer to the riddle is coming at noon - sooner if you beat me to it.

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[Cougarbib]

BTW

I am with you that it is time to sniff the backup QB and see what he has got.

Last Hint

I think decisions about QBs should be looked at on a game by game basis

Might help spot a downward trend

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[rblack]

Just a guess, his initial PER was 581.2 against Washington State and since then it has only gone down.

[Cougarbib]

Just a guess, his initial PER was 581.2 against Washington State and since then it has only gone down.

Very close. Very.

Now - where did he rank vs all time BYU PER and national PER at that moment.

The First Shall Be Last

Perhaps, but doubtful, The Last Will Be First

I took a lot of heat back vs WSU for being less impressed with that one pass, TD and all, than most. Most went gaga and took it as a great indicator of the future.

It raises the question of whether the PER that showed him as best in the nation or the one that shows him as worst in the nation is the best indicator of the future.

I think the TH PER will start to rise tomorrow. How far and how long that rise will carry

IDK. For sure. But I do know the initial PER was based on a very small sample and was thus the likely outlier.

Go Cougs

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[hawkwing]

There's a reason why there's a minimum required number of pass attempts to qualify. No irony at all.

[SpiffCoug]

PER showed on that ONE play he was extremely efficient. Very similar to how the very next week, Travis wilson was 1-1 for 28 yards and 1 TD for a PER of 665.2.

As Hawk said, there is a reason why you need minimum attempts required.

Back in 1992, a friend of mine got a brand new rotesserie baseball game for his PC. We held a draft and he plugged in the results of the draft. The game simulated games based on the previous year's statistics. What my friend didn't tell the rest of us was that he could adjust the baseline stats needed. He adjusted the minimums required to 5.

He had the last pick and selected Jim Thome who was called up for like two games in the 1991 season. Thome hit like 3 home runs in 8 ABs in 1991. While the rest of us were drafting guys like Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Joe Carter, etc, he was selecting a bunch of triple A call ups and guys with great stats in very limited plate appearances.

After about 10 games into the simulated season (each day he would print off box scores and standings for the rest of us) and Thome was hitting two home runs a game we all called foul.

You have to do it on a slightly more consistent basis than a one off instance. Otherwise we'd look at Mike Hague versus UNLV in 2006 and say he was going to be the best RB to ever play for BYU. If you remember, Hague had 9 carries for 124 yards and an 87-yard TD.

Don't judge a player on one play. And I'm pretty sure I wasn't touting THill as the best throwing QB in the history of the sport based on one throw.

[rblack]

Just a guess, his initial PER was 581.2 against Washington State and since then it has only gone down.

Very close. Very.

Now - where did he rank vs all time BYU PER and national PER at that moment.

The First Shall Be Last

Perhaps, but doubtful, The Last Will Be First

I took a lot of heat back vs WSU for being less impressed with that one pass, TD and all, than most. Most went gaga and took it as a great indicator of the future.

It raises the question of whether the PER that showed him as best in the nation or the one that shows him as worst in the nation is the best indicator of the future.

I think the TH PER will start to rise tomorrow. How far and how long that rise will carry

IDK. For sure. But I do know the initial PER was based on a very small sample and was thus the likely outlier.

Go Cougs

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Had his career ended at that point, he would have been 4th in PER for his career at BYU (just barely). Had that stat held up for the season, he would have had the 5th best season PER at BYU. I still don't know what the point is.

[CrimsonCoug]

I have included Taysom's rushing numbers in his PER (I gave him incompletions for his negative yard runs or runs for 0 yards)

This would be his PER:
75 of 162 for 964 yards 4 TDs 3 INTs PER of 100.73.

Still abysmal

Spiff, thanks for this. The formula adjustments seem similar to what we'd all discussed over the summer. I'd wondered how Hill would look with a total accounting for his productivity. Of course, these adjustments would also mean that for comparability the adjusted PER for all other BYU QBs would increase as well, and so the Mendoza line would also increase. Yet I'm confident the the jump in the Mendoza would likely not be nearly as high as the leap Hill's numbers saw by including his running ability into the equation. The irony (if it is that) that I see is that a dual threat QB who can both run and pass well makes both aspects of his game better than either would be alone. There's complementarity in being able to do both. (Think Young, Kaepernick, RG3). Hill's unideminsionality hurts what he's best at--the run. If he could pass better, he'd run better and his PER would increase by more than the improvement in passing.

Bib, I often agree with you, but the tone of this 'riddle' has been sanctimonious nigh unto insufferable. And I say that with love. The PER slide from WSU on down is an interesting factoid, but nothing to base any real conversation on.

More interesting, I think, is that Hill actually did far better against a better defense last year in Utah State than against any of the middling defenses he's faced this year (though UVA did have a solid secondary who knew just when to make a hit). Not sure what explains that. The Heaps curse of a sophomore slump? Coaching changes? Philosophy change? Don't know, but that USU game keep bugging me and keeps me wanting to give Hill more time (same with the Hawaii game, but that was against an awful D).