http://www.cougarboard.com/board/messag ... d=16110872
I'm nowhere near the expert that Bobby McMahon and others on here are, but here goes:
TLDR VERSION
BYU will be awesome. Best team on paper in BYU history. Picture BYU basketball with the LP3 3 years from now, where all of them are Seniors and Juniors. The team that had a successful run last season (ranked #13 in the country entering the NCAA Tournament with a 15-2-2 record) loses no essential pieces and gains a few from missions. It is loaded with experience, depth, and talent. 5 of the top 100 Seniors in the country, and 2 of the top 30 Juniors in the country. Its OOC schedule is decent (Top 30) with at least one really tough matchup and expected loss @ 2015 National Champion Penn State. It's possible for BYU to go undefeated in conference play and, if everything goes well, enter the NCAA tournament with just 0-2 losses total.
LONG VERSION
Next year is, on paper, the most talented BYU squad in history. The team lost just two seniors, one of which was a starter but not an irreplaceable one, and is now loaded with talent AND experience. Chris Henderson, a blogger for women youth, college, and professional soccer, has ranked FIVE out of six BYU seniors in the Top 100 in the country in terms of professional draft prospects:
Paige Hunt Barker #93 (LB/CB)
Michelle Murphy Vasconcelos #72 (RF)
Rachel Boaz #43 (GK)
Elena Medeiros #42 (CM)
Ashley Hatch #26 (CF)
Also, in terms of Junior ranking pro prospects, Chris has 2 BYU Juniors in the top 30:
Bizzy Phillips-Bowen
Nadia Gomes
This is despite the fact that two are much older (Hunt-Barker and Boaz served missions). In terms of that highly-sought-after experience/talent combination, BYU is up there with the best in the country next year. Look at the makeup of the team in just the past two seasons:
Season Upperclassmen (Total) Expected Starters - Upperclassmen
2014 7 4
2015 9 5
2016 16* 10**
*Numbers may be slightly off due to missions
** Based on my projections (all 10 started or contributed heavily at some point last season)
ROSTER
KEY LOSSES
Disclaimer: It's hard to follow all the missions and other movements on the team, so I could be a little off
Sarah Chambers Gardner (D): After a solid career despite being undersized, Sarah graduated. She is the only consistent starter to leave after last season. The emergence of Isom and projected return of Ella Johnson from her mission soften the blow on this end.
Marissa Nimmer Linehan (MF): Married to Jonny on the football team. She had a coming out party in her freshman year, but younger players passed her up for playing time in the past two seasons. Always reliable to kick a floating, curving corner or set piece.
RETURN MISSIONARIES
Rachel Bingham - MF - returned last month from Guatemala. Ranked #122 in the country coming out of HS. Played in 16 games in her freshman year before going on her mission, and really found her stride as the season progressed.
Ella Johnson - D - returned last month from Omaha, NE mission. Contributed heavily in 2013 as a freshman - started in every game at outside back. Contribution went down in 2014 for her sophomore year, but she played in 13 games.
Kayci Griffin - MF - returned recently from her mission in Chile. I can't seem to find her anywhere on the BYU site, which makes me think she may have left before playing.
Returning in 2017: Alyssa Jefferson, Shaylynn Orr. Both started their careers with promise but both had knee injuries at inopportune times. Hopefully they can come back and contribute.
PROJECTED DEPTH CHART
Never before has BYU had the scoring potential they have this coming year. For that reason, I see Rockwood going with four forwards or 3 forwards and a MF in name only. Sometimes Rockwood frustrates me with her crazy lineups to start the season and her inability to get the girls to mesh, especially up front. This year, the starters should be pretty easy to project, since BYU lost almost nobody from last season and girls getting back from missions may come in with some rust:
Gomes
Lyons
Hatch
Murphy-Vasconcelos
FORWARDS
Phillips-Bowen
Medeiros
Siddoway
MIDS
Campbell-Isom
Hunt-Barker
Calton/ Ringwood
BACKS
Boaz
GOAL
FIRST TEAM
Flake
Loomis
Swenson-Haslam
(Brianna) Hatch
FORWARDS
Bingham/Griffin
(Brianna) Hatch
Dearden/ Braby
MIDS
Bailey-Topham
Johnson
Calton/ Ringwood
BACKS
Clark/Smith
GOAL
SECOND TEAM
AREAS TO IMPROVE
Last year, the team was consistently near the top of the country in shots (they were #1 in the country for most of the year, and may have ended the season there), but near lowest in terms of shots on goal/shots ratio. The reason? BYU players were just blasting shots from 30 yards out, all the time. The team would hit spurts where they wouldn't pass or get into the box. This has to improve. We have too many goal scorers to waste them on ill-advised shots that make opposing teams' keepers comfortable. How bad was it? At one point in a game, BYU had almost 80 shots and no goals. It was a BYU record for shots, which was praised, but for all the wrong reasons. A few of those shots were legitimately dangerous, and the opposing GK had a heck of a game, but BYU would fare better by taking half the shots and twice the passes up front.
The defense was pretty stellar last year, and should continue to be, as long as Ella Johnson or someone else steps up to replace Chambers-Gardner. The midfield will likely benefit from more consistency and should focus on maintaining possession and making quality passes to forwards that set them up for quality shots.
SCHEDULE
Henderson ranked BYU as having the 29th-toughtest OOC strength of schedule. If the rest of the conference can do better than last year and not lay an egg in OOC play, BYU has a great shot at having a home game or two in the NCAA tournament. We play 4 teams that were ranked entering last season's NCAA tournament (Penn State, Santa Clara, Washington State, Long Beach State).
When I get the chance, sometime before the season starts I'll go through the schedule and give my ranking for the top 10 toughest games for the season. Based on last year's season-ending RPI alone (a very flawed measure, mind you), the ranking would be something like this:
1. @ Penn State
21. @ Ohio State
26. vs. Santa Clara
30. @ Washington State
32. @ Loyola Marymount
44. vs. Nebraska
46. vs. Long Beach State
68. vs. Tennessee
73. vs. San Francisco
103. @ Utah
133. @ Pepperdine
154. vs. Portland
174. vs. SMU
186. @ St. Mary's
195. @ San Diego
197. @ Utah State
229. vs. Gonzaga
242. @ Pacific
319. vs. Denver
The front end of the schedule is brutal (@ Washington State, vs. Nebraska, @ Penn State, vs. Tennesee, @ Utah, vs. SMU, @ Ohio State). 6 of our first 7 opponents are in our Top 10 in terms of RPI last year. Hopefully our experience gives us an advantage. If things were stagnant and remained the same as last year for everyone, we would be projected to win all but Penn State and maybe Ohio State (we were ranked 22 in RPI to end the season). I think that getting through those first 7 games with only 1-2 losses is essential.
The other thing that stands out is just how bad the WCC was last year. Uncharacteristically bad. They had a few teams rise to the top, but a lot of others shot themselves in the foot in OOC play.
Finally, none of our brutal games are at home with the exception of Santa Clara. I fully expect BYU to go undefeated at home this year.