Post your electoral predictions

[snoscythe]

I really think there are two basic reasons for this unexpected outcome:

1) The "Bradley" effect in polling. Basically this boils down to the fact that, if you are nice person, when you pick up the phone and talk to another human, even a faceless stranger, you instinctively feel pressure to give polite inoffensive answers. Trump's bombast and un-pc statements amplified the Bradley effect to where people who in fact aligned with Trump nevertheless stated they were undecided or would vote third party to avoid admitting to the stranger on the other end of the line that they were really in favor of the candidate many viewed as a racist groper.

2) The health insurance premium notices that have gone out in the last month. In 2012, Obama delayed those premium notices until after election day, but made no such move this time around. When NeverTrumpers opened those notices in Utah (average of 40% increase in premiums), Arizona (average of over 100% increase in premiums), and other states, suddenly their wallet entered the conversation more forcefully. One candidate was proposing to keep on draining your wallet each month, and the other was promising repeal and replace. That concrete financial factor not only swayed many NeverTrumpers, but it also drove turnout and motivated marginally involved voters to get off their rumps.

And finally the McMullin question. Two people I know went to the poll in Utah intending to vote McMullin. Both told me that when they got to the booth and saw the names, they couldn't do it and both voted Trump (full disclosure -- I did not vote for Clinton, Trump, Johnson, nor McMullin). This is why third-party and independents underperform their polling on a consistent basis. It's one thing to tell a pollster or even your friends what you are going to do with your vote before you get to that booth, but unless you are truly committed to your protest vote, the weight of what's on the line in an election hits you hardest at that point of no return where it's just you and the ballot. That, combined with #1 and #2 above, is why McMullin finished 24 points behind Trump and 8 points behind Clinton in Utah.

[byufan4ever]

Some black lady on NPR radio this morning (didn't catch her name) was all upset saying Trump won because white people hated having a black president and so they are now getting their revenge for having a black president for 8 years. In ALL of my discussions with my white coworkers and friends about Obama's failings, NEVER once did someone say they didn't like him because he's black. It was always about his policies. This is going to be a tough 4 years not necessarily because of what Trump will do but because of what others will do...

[Cougarfan87]

Yup. I have seen and heard the liberal reaction, and it basically is saying that uneducated white America was signaling to minorities that they are unwanted and were put in their place by this vote. I don't think that had anything to do with the Trump vote, except for perhaps a very small minority. This wasn't about race relations. It was about repealing Obamacare, rebuilding the economy (whether you agree it is the right way to go about it), and rejecting the establishment. It wasn't about rejecting a woman as President. It was about rejecting THAT woman as President.

[byufan4ever]

Yup. I have seen and heard the liberal reaction, and it basically is saying that uneducated white America was signaling to minorities that they are unwanted and were put in their place by this vote. I don't think that had anything to do with the Trump vote, except for perhaps a very small minority. This wasn't about race relations. It was about repealing Obamacare, rebuilding the economy (whether you agree it is the right way to go about it), and rejecting the establishment. It wasn't about rejecting a woman as President. It was about rejecting THAT woman as President.

Exactly. I would even go so far as to say that the liberals and Obama's administration created the Trump monster. If people weren't so sick of how PC everything has gotten then Trump wouldn't have had a chance.

[Cougarfan87]

Yup. I have seen and heard the liberal reaction, and it basically is saying that uneducated white America was signaling to minorities that they are unwanted and were put in their place by this vote. I don't think that had anything to do with the Trump vote, except for perhaps a very small minority. This wasn't about race relations. It was about repealing Obamacare, rebuilding the economy (whether you agree it is the right way to go about it), and rejecting the establishment. It wasn't about rejecting a woman as President. It was about rejecting THAT woman as President.

Exactly. I would even go so far as to say that the liberals and Obama's administration created the Trump monster. If people weren't so sick of how PC everything has gotten then Trump wouldn't have had a chance.

I concur. The pendulum could not swing any farther. That is just not where this country is. I think the media and liberals believed they had finally convinced the masses of what they have been spewing for decades. Turns out...not so much.