Political Polling Oct 31, 2016

[StatsCougar]

This week sees much of the same as in the past, with Mr. Trump never winning the election. On a positive note, things have begun to swing back in his direction, with Hillary Clinton only averaging 326, rather the 341 of last week. Mr. Trump will need the momentum to increase if he hopes to break 270 to win.

Most of the polls used in this analysis were conducted in part before Friday's announcement of a renewed look at Hillary's email server.

The best news for Trump is Texas is now more solidly Republican, Ohio is now Lean Republican, Nevada is now a toss-up and Colorado is lean Democrat. The bad news is Iowa is now a toss-up, Missouri and South Carolina are now both lean republican.

Mr. Trump's biggest problem is he is not swinging the states that he really needs. Alaska is still a toss-up with a recent poll having Mr. Trump down by 4 points (still within the margin of Error). North Carolina, Virginia, and Pennsylvania are still solidly Democrat, and Trump needs at least one of those to flip and for him to still get Florida to win.

Utah currently has a 4.04% change of voting for Evan McMullin. This is down over last week as the most recent polls put Trump at around 32% and McMullin around 29%. Clinton is around 25%.

As we are getting closer to the election, there are two major questions that will determine the results. The first is voter enthusiasm. Here Trump has a decided advantage. Trump has a group of voters that is very energized for him. Hillary does not. I think the fact that she was crowned and the corruption mess of her email and foundation have lead those that will vote for not to do so happily (And a large number are just voting against Trump.) The second issue is how will the undecided break in the election. I have not tried to models this, but I am working on something for the final version of this that will come out before the election in a week. If votes break the way they traditional do, away from the incumbent party, Trump might flip some states yet. But this election is so out of the ordinary, that how people will break will be hard to predict.

Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
279.0 325.0 326.0 328.9 332.0 390.0

[scott715]

Thanks, I've waiting for your update. It is going down to the wire. Trump is sticking to his message of change and anti corruption. Big keys.

Now can you model the stock market's reaction afterwards?

[StatsCougar]

Thanks, I've waiting for your update. It is going down to the wire. Trump is sticking to his message of change and anti corruption. Big keys.

Now can you model the stock market's reaction afterwards?

If I could, I'm in the wrong business. My guess, sell short. Stocks will go down if Trump becomes President Elect, as he is an unknown on policy, and Wall Street hates uncertainty. This will cause them to sell stocks, to protect their money, driving prices down.

[scott715]

When will you do the last one. I can't wait to get this election behind us. I need to do some phone banking for a candidate here in my state tomorrow.

[StatsCougar]

I was planning to do it Monday Night, but I might start working on it tonight, depending on how life is going.