Political Polling Oct 03, 2016

[StatsCougar]

The polls are in after the debate and if the election were held tomorrow, Hillary Clinton would be the next President. This weeks simulations have Mr. Trump winning 7 out of 100,000 elections. There are two major reasons for this. The first is that some of the Toss-up states that had a slight Trump lead are now more comfortable behind Clinton. North Carolina and Florida are the best examples of this. The other major shift was Colorado. Where last week this was a Toss-up, Colorado is now solidly in the Clinton's camp.

With the shift away from Trump, the #NeverHillary crowd has little hope. Much of the recent polling has Gary Johnson showing a decline in support. This lack of support will prevent him from playing spoiler this year. New Mexico is the only state where Johnson has a shoot of winning, and right now that is a one in a million shot.

There are two major questions left to be answered. The first is what voter turn out will be. This is a toss-up on who it will favor. Trump as a very rabid section of support, that has a lot of passion. But at the same time he has turn off a large portion of his party's (former?) base. (The only states with double digit undecided are traditional Red States). The second question is how the undecided will split. As much as it pains me to say, I believe that the majority will break for Clinton. The main reason for this is honesty. Recent polls show that more American's believe Hillary is more honest than Trump. This lack of trust is another reason Trump is losing stream. Trump's tax returns are not helping him either.

Right now, Trump needs to get on message and really go after Hillary in the next debate. If he doesn't, there will be no point to the third debate. If Wikileaks really does have a bombshell, that might have enough power to swing things, depending on how the media covers it.