Political Polling Sept 26, 2016

[StatsCougar]

Another week has passed and Mr. Trump has lost some of the ground he made up last week. I'd give him 1.2% change of winning if the election were held today. (.6% change of a tie.) Hillary Clinton looks to win with 301 votes.

There are several reasons for the shift. The first is the amount of polls that are coming in. While many of the polls by themselves would show a toss-up, for a state like Pennsylvania or Virginia, there are enough polls to showing HRC leading that the state is solidly behind her. The second is many of the changes I am seeing are in states that are solidly on one side or the other.

With the map as it currently stands, Donald Trump has to win every toss-up state but Nevada to win the election. My numbers give him narrow leads in three of the five. (Behind in Florida 43.9% to 42.7% and Colorado 40.6% to 39.4%). Of note in Colorado, Gary Johnson is pulling more from HRC the from Donald Trump. He was not in the race, I doubt Colorado would be a toss-up and Hillary Clinton would be almost certain to win.

With the first debate tonight, a large number of polls will likely be released this week. If Mr. Trump is going to make this a fight, he needs to do so to night.

*Methodology notes: Current the second congressional district in Maine has Trump winning. Maine splits there Electoral College Votes based on who wins each Congressional District, with an additional 2 going to the statewide winner. Mississippi is considered a toss-up as there has only been one poll in the past month, that is was fairly close. I highly doubt that it will vote for Hillary.

[billbillbillbill]

Doubt he made up any ground in that debate. I was left shaking my head at Trump's weak answers. Not a good night.

[SpiffCoug]

Doubt he made up any ground in that debate. I was left shaking my head at Trump's weak answers. Not a good night.

He did have a poor debate. But where did he lose support? In states he's already losing? Where did HRC pick up any support? Next week's polling will be interesting to see on the state level.