Political Polling Sept 12, 2016

[StatsCougar]

Now that Labor day is over, political polling is going to be in full swing. Because of that, I plan on posting predictions of the outcome of presidential elections. Above is chart of possible outcomes of the race looking at the two major candidates (no third party was able to win any electoral votes.) This is based on the most recent polling. I did 100,000 simulation.

The result show that HRC will win the election, and it will not be close. She averages 335 electoral college votes (270 needed to win). That margin of victory is the state of California. In related bad news, Trump is struggling with key traditional red states like Texas. He is winning there 40.1 to 40%. (Washington Post survey.) If trump cannot get Texas back squarely voting for him, he is likely going to lose in a landside (not quite as bad as '84).

On two more positive notes, trump has actually made up some ground. Last Time I did this, he won 0 out of 100,000 times. Now he wins .006% of the time. The changes of a tie are .001%. The other positive note is most of the polling took place before HRC public display of pneumonia. That should move some of the polls slightly in his favor. If that happens, it should make the race more competitive.

[scott715]

This should be interesting. Thanks.

[Ddawg]

Hey StatsCoug, that's a major time and effort commitment. Ought to be very interesting. Thanks in advance.