Time to Re-assess Trump's Chances

[Ddawg]

I have read posts from some folks here predicting a certain Trump defeat in November. Some have even predicted a whopping, lopsided, historical Trump defeat. Not so fast. The current polls are telling a different story.

Nate Silver (a committed Democrat) runs a polling operation called "FiveThirtyEight" (or 538). He uses hard numbers and analysis to predict outcomes of politics, sports, and economics.

1. Five-Thirty-Eight "now cast" predicts, if the election were held today:
Trump wins 57.5% chance
Hillary wins 42.5% chance

2. In the USC Dorslife/LA Times Presidential election Poll:
Trump 47%
Hillary 40.4%

3. CNN/ORC Poll:
Trump 48%
Hillary 45%

4. CBS News poll:
Trump 44%
Hillary 43%

5. Politico today posted LA Times/USC Poll:
Trump 47%
Hillary 40%


Yes, Trump got a nice convention bounce. Hillary will probably experience the same. The fact is, this is going to be a nasty election where the outcome is going to be closer than anyone thought - down to the wire.

[SpiffCoug]

Further proof of just how awful a candidate Trump is. If the GOP could have nominated someone who was likable (Rubio?) they'd be up 10+ points right now.

[Ddawg]

Further proof of just how awful a candidate Trump is. If the GOP could have nominated someone who was likable (Rubio?) they'd be up 10+ points right now.

Maybe. Interesting assessment, considering Marco Rubio could not even win his home state Florida in the 2016 GOP Primary.

Florida Primary
1. Trump 45.7%, 1,077,221 votes
2. Rubio 27%, 636,653 votes
3. Cruz 17.1%, 403,640 votes
4. Kasich 6.8% , 159,412 votes

[hawkwing]

I predict a Reagan over Mondale-esque election result.

A vote for an evil person is an endorsement of evil.

[Ddawg]

I predict a Reagan over Mondale-esque election result.

A vote for an evil person is an endorsement of evil.

Exactly. And the most corrupt, dishonest, evil person to ever receive a nomination and run for the U.S. presidency is Hillary Clinton. Chronic liar and evil. Hillary and Bill are Gadianton Inc.

[billbillbillbill]

I'm actually quite interested to see what the future wikileaks e-mails contain. There is a lot of chatter that they have a lot more to release. I was actually surprised with the amount of coverage and fallout that occurred from the set released before the convention. Before the FBI wussed out, I had fully believed that Hillary would pull out and Biden would jump in and be the unbeatable hero. I imagine this could still be possible but as it gets closer to November, that will become harder and harder.

Should be interesting.

[hawkwing]

I predict a Reagan over Mondale-esque election result.

A vote for an evil person is an endorsement of evil.

Exactly. And the most corrupt, dishonest, evil person to ever receive a nomination and run for the U.S. presidency is Hillary Clinton. Chronic liar and evil. Hillary and Bill are Gadianton Inc.

Yes, all those things are exactly right, along with her biggest supporter, Donald Trump, the most maniacal, evil individual to ever receive a nomination to run for U.S. presidency.

[Ddawg]

I predict a Reagan over Mondale-esque election result.

A vote for an evil person is an endorsement of evil.

Exactly. And the most corrupt, dishonest, evil person to ever receive a nomination and run for the U.S. presidency is Hillary Clinton. Chronic liar and evil. Hillary and Bill are Gadianton Inc.

Yes, all those things are exactly right, along with her biggest supporter, Donald Trump, the most maniacal, evil individual to ever receive a nomination to run for U.S. presidency.

Disagree. Have you ever had any personal business dealings with Trump? Have you ever sat across the table and had "behind closed door" 1 on 1 business dealings and private conversations with him?

[Ddawg]

The answer to the above questions is "No." I have posted this before, but will again. I have a personal friend. I just spent 2 weeks at his house over the 4th of July. He has had several big real estate deals with Trump - over a number of years. He has sat behind closed doors and had private "1 on 1" private conversations with Trump. He has a pretty good feel for the guy. Somewhat better than you. He and I have talked at great length about Trump. He is supporting Trump big time. I believe you assessment, which comes from the media, is incorrect.

Remember, Reagan was a Democrat till he was 51. Ronald Reagan had an impressive transformation. We all evolve and change.

[jvquarterback]

Further proof of just how awful a candidate Trump is. If the GOP could have nominated someone who was likable (Rubio?) they'd be up 10+ points right now.

Have you ever hear Rubio speak? That is the reason he lost. Though I wish it was the fact he is a complete moron and the worst candidate on the Republican side this go round and the electorate is actually informed. Rubio would have been a guaranteed loss.