What We've Learned

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byufan4ever
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What We've Learned

Post by byufan4ever » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:46 am

Pretty good analysis at Lawless Republic: https://lawlessrepublic.com/2017/12/11/ ... -first-10/

No. 1: BYU basketball plays… defense? Even though we are in the exact same defensive efficiency at #82 it just feels and looks better.

In general I agree and even though we got a key defensive stop against Weber St. there's no way that should have been a close game. There's also this sentiment that we're defending really well against the opposing guards which will fair us well in the WCC. However, we've been scorched by Harding (Weber St.) with 29 points (10 points above his ave) on 12/20 1/5 4/4 shooting and by Scott (Niagara) with 36 points (11 above his ave) on 13/24 5/12 5/9 shooting. Yes, both those games were wins, but it goes against the mantra that we can handle the guard strong WCC.

No. 2: Dalton Nixon is going to contribute in a big way. The secondary unit had major questions coming into the season, specifically about Hardnett and Dastrup. Nixon's hustle play is firing up his teammates.

My take - Hardnett and Nixon have been pleasant surprises but Dastrup is still a mystery and I wouldn't call our bench deep. Cannon becoming eligible helps but if we get into foul trouble as a team I'm worried.

No. 3: BYU basketball is capable of making a run. Potentially we're looking at a 20-4 record when we host the Zags. However, if we end up with 6 losses we're a bubble team.

My take - 20-4 looks very pleasing to the eyes, but I'm going to say that with 6 losses we're a bubble team at best and probably a lot closer to a 3 seed NIT. We need 2 marquee wins and no bad losses. When I post our RPI breakdown every weekend the only record that really matters come dance time (IMO) is the vs top 100. So even though we're 8-2 right now we're really just 2-2 with 0 top 25 wins and 0 bad losses.
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Re: What We've Learned

Post by snoscythe » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:51 am


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Re: What We've Learned

Post by Mars » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:10 pm

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.

Beating Utah would be a huge step.
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Re: What We've Learned

Post by snoscythe » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:17 pm

Mars wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:10 pm
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.

Beating Utah would be a huge step.
Utah = KenPom #59

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Re: What We've Learned

Post by Mars » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:55 pm

snoscythe wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:17 pm
Mars wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:10 pm
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.

Beating Utah would be a huge step.
Utah = KenPom #59
It's funny because ESPN (which has been way off all season thus far) gives BYU a 66% chance of winning.
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Re: What We've Learned

Post by BroncoBot » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:59 pm

Mars wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:55 pm
snoscythe wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:17 pm
Mars wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:10 pm
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.

Beating Utah would be a huge step.
Utah = KenPom #59
It's funny because ESPN (which has been way off all season thus far) gives BYU a 66% chance of winning.
They're trolling us.

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Re: What We've Learned

Post by BlueK » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:41 pm

If BYU wins Saturday they will find a way to get themselves into the NCAA tournament this season just like most other Rose teams have done.

If BYU loses, it will be much harder.
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Re: What We've Learned

Post by Mars » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:25 pm

snoscythe wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:17 pm
Mars wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:10 pm
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.

Beating Utah would be a huge step.
Utah = KenPom #59
BTW, what's BYU? I think we were somewhere around #69 last I checked.
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Re: What We've Learned

Post by snoscythe » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:49 pm

Mars wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:25 pm
snoscythe wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:17 pm
Mars wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:10 pm
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/BYU.html

RPI Forecast predicts BYU gets swept by both Gonzaga and St. Mary's, loses two additional games, and finishes with a RPI around 73. That would definitely be an NIT season.

Beating Utah would be a huge step.
Utah = KenPom #59
BTW, what's BYU? I think we were somewhere around #69 last I checked.
#71 as of this moment.

https://kenpom.com/

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Re: What We've Learned

Post by Gunk » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:30 am

As much as I hate losing to Utah, I hate losing to the likes of Pepperdine, LMU, and Portland more.

That said, I hope we win. Go Cougs!
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