history

BYU Cougars on the court.
BlueK
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history

Post by BlueK » Mon Jan 09, 2017 2:08 pm

Stan Watts is a Hall of Famer. But take a look at this stretch he had during his career at BYU. Times have changed. I don't see how any coach would survive this string of seasons in our era. Maybe this will put things into a little more perspective.

1958: 13-13
1959: 15-11
1960: 8-17
1961: 15-11
1962: 10-16
1963: 12-14
1964: 13-12

Then again:
1967: 14-10
1968: 13-12
1969: 16-12
1970: 8-18

At most schools even today, even with 68 teams, going to the NCAA tournament is the nice exception and not the rule. It certainly was that way at BYU before Coach Rose. And actually, not even that, but even just having a winning season was the nice exception, even at BYU, and even with a Hall of Fame coach. But over the last several years something that is actually a good accomplishment has been made to look commonplace, and then soon those become the bare minimums with the fans. That said, I still think our future with these players is very bright.
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Re: history

Post by byufan4ever » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:40 pm

Let's settle for good not great because our past has been mediocre.

If the football team won less than 8 games two seasons in a row the fans would be up in arms.

Sometimes it takes one coach to get the team from A to B, another to get it to C and yet another to get it to D. Some can't do the A to D.

Rose is definitely not a bad coach. I accept that BYU will probably never have a tier 1 or 5 star coach. But I have been left wanting in recent seasons.

Thank you for the history lesson. Thank you to the great coaches who have paved the way to get BYU hoops to where it is today.

I like to win. I like to win conferences and tournament games.
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Re: history

Post by BlueK » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:54 pm

byufan4ever wrote:Let's settle for good not great because our past has been mediocre.

If the football team won less than 8 games two seasons in a row the fans would be up in arms.

Sometimes it takes one coach to get the team from A to B, another to get it to C and yet another to get it to D. Some can't do the A to D.

Rose is definitely not a bad coach. I accept that BYU will probably never have a tier 1 or 5 star coach. But I have been left wanting in recent seasons.

Thank you for the history lesson. Thank you to the great coaches who have paved the way to get BYU hoops to where it is today.

I like to win. I like to win conferences and tournament games.
I want great. Coach Rose wants great. But high hopes and high minimum standards are different things. It's not wise to fire a coach who has been way above any level our program has ever been before him because it's unlikely there are many out there who would do a lot better. You really don't do it when his best recruiting classes on paper have barely gotten started playing for us. Let's see where we're at in 2-3 years. I'm pretty sure we'll be better than right now once these freshmen and sophomores have more experience.
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Re: history

Post by BlueK » Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:58 pm

For the record, I feel differently about Rose than I did about Coach Cleveland. Coach Cleveland did some nice things. Coach Rose has been better. But I don't think realistically there are many, if any, levels above this as far as coaches BYU can get. But w'e're also at the very beginning of the best string of recruiting classes here in the last 30 years. Let's see how this team does as the season progresses and then next year. I think we're going to like what happens.
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Re: history

Post by snoscythe » Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:51 pm

How much was Stan Watts being paid? How much were tickets to the games? You can even control for inflation.

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Re: history

Post by hawkwing » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:31 pm

Coach Rose isn't the same coach he was before his cancer. He's discovered there are certain things in life more important than coaching basketball. Good for him.

It means his ceiling is 2nd round NCAA tournament and average will be late round NIT exits.

We just have to decide if we're okay with that or want something else.

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Re: history

Post by nuk13 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:41 pm

Watts had a team that won the NIT back when it was a prestigious tournament. I think 3 of those players went pro albeit to the then new ABA. I believe Jim Eakins played for the Lakers after a career in the ABA.

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Re: history

Post by BlueK » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:02 am

nuk13 wrote:Watts had a team that won the NIT back when it was a prestigious tournament. I think 3 of those players went pro albeit to the then new ABA. I believe Jim Eakins played for the Lakers after a career in the ABA.
That's true. None of that would matter today. Give the real "Coach K" at Duke two bad years after all he has done and the fans there would want him out. It's just the way things work today.
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Re: history

Post by BlueK » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:05 am

snoscythe wrote:How much was Stan Watts being paid? How much were tickets to the games? You can even control for inflation.
Not sure how this is relevant.

But there is a real thing called diminishing marginal returns. It's much harder to go from making the NCAA tournament every year to making the sweet 16 every year and then making the final four every year. Rose has taken basketball to a higher level than it has ever been. Is an even higher level possible? Yes, but is it really that much more possible with a different coach than it would be for him? Doubtful. And the drop down to a lower level (to BYU historical norms) is probably more likely. My argument is about risk and reward. Firing a coach that has been more successful than what we have ever seen at the school is far riskier than firing a coach who is underperforming history (like Gary Crowton).
Last edited by BlueK on Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: history

Post by BlueK » Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:13 am

hawkwing wrote:Coach Rose isn't the same coach he was before his cancer. He's discovered there are certain things in life more important than coaching basketball. Good for him.

It means his ceiling is 2nd round NCAA tournament and average will be late round NIT exits.

We just have to decide if we're okay with that or want something else.

He got cancer two years before the sweet 16 run with Jimmer.

And how many coaches at BYU had a higher ceiling in the NCAA tournament? Frank Arnold got there one time. But we ran him out of town. And he had actual bad years before that and after that, unlike Rose.

Ladell Andersen only won a single WAC tournament GAME (not tournament -- GAME) in his six years despite almost always finishing in the top 2-3 in the conference . He was 1-6 in WAC tournament games in six years. Five first round exits, and I'm pretty sure every single one of those was to a lower seeded team. He even lost to last place Air Force in the first round on his own home floor one year.

Steve Cleveland brought the program back from the Abyss but couldn't win a single NCAA game. At least Rose changed that.

Our history gives us no reason to believe it would be so easy to suddenly be making sweet 16s every year. We have some really promising players coming in to the program. What happens when coaches get fired? Players transfer. There is no guarantee it would get even slightly better, and a much bigger risk it would implode. It's not like firing a coach like Crowton who couldn't even win half his games three years in a row. Seriously, I think this is insane to even be talking about right now.
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