Early Thoughts on next year

[Qman]

Fischer and KC played big minutes and made big plays for us last year and we have a lot of production to replace.

My Projected Starting Lineup

Emery
Bryant
Chatman
Davis
Mika

The Returning Starters

Emery is going to be a team leader next year and I hope he can figure out how to be more consistent. I worry that as the teams #1 returning scorer defenses are going to force him into a lot of turnovers.

Davis is going to be asked to fill a bigger role. I hope puts the work in the weigh room to be able to dominate on block next year. Because I foresee him coughing the ball up a lot.

My Projected Starters

Mika is one the most talented big men we have every had at BYU. I expect him to start slow with mission rust but we will desperately need his scoring inside.

Elijah Bryant is going to be very important to our success next year. Teams are going to focus on Emery and we will need a second ballhandler/creator. As a red-shirt sophomore he should have enough experience to make a positive impact right away.

Chatman- some might want to start Haws and he might earn it but for the team to reach its full potential we need some to take the defensive burden on the perimeter. If he can add a little more strength to improve his defense and drives to the hoop, then he'll demand playing time.

Key Bench Players

Haws is the only other scholarship guard on next years team. We are going to need him to play big minutes. In HS he was a great scorer and we going to need plenty of that. Apparently he just returned from his mission, so I expect he will not have a lot of mission rust.

Kaufusi when locked in, is a key force for us on the boards and on D. I expect Mika's minutes to be limited by his conditioning and foul trouble. Hopefully Kaufusi can improve his fundamentals a little more to unlock his talents even more.

The Big Unknowns

Can someone out of Aytes, Hartsock, Dastrup or Childs emerge to take over the backup 4 minutes? We will need some scoring out of that spot.

Can any of them slide over to guard 3's? We are so thin on wings I expect to see zone with Hartsock at 3 due foul trouble etc. Of course this strategy would put more pressure on Haws, Emery and Bryant as the teams ball-handlers.

Does Aytes buckle down, stay healthy and improve his game? Or does he transfer again? Childs and Dastrup play his position, are highly touted and will play 4 years in a row.

Will any of the walk on guards emerge as an important role player?

[SpiffCoug]

Don't sleep on Dastrup. He'll be a key cog in the offense next year.

[Brayden Green]

Word on the street is that Kaufusi is going to play football, and with Dastrup, Childs, Mika, Aytes and Davis there might not be room for another big anyways.

My way too early starters are:

Emery
Haws
Childs
Dastrup
Mika

The Lone Peak Trio is going to be ready to rumble, and as long as they are healthy they should all start together. Dastrup and Childs are too talented to keep off the court. It will be super uptempo and we should have the depth to cover.

[hawkwing]

Time for the Kaufusi experiment to end. We've seen some flashes of brilliance from him, but he hasn't consistently improved over 2 full seasons. Better to try to bring in a juco guy.

[Gunk]

I'm not worried about offense. Rose's teams always know how to score. I'm worried about defense.

Defense Efficiency Rankings:
2015 - 50th (0.961)
2014 - 190th (1.004)
2013 - 155th (1.017)
2012 - 119th (0.962)
2011 - 28th (0.915)
2010 - 32nd (0.929)

Opponents Points Per Game
2015 - 199th (73.3 points/game)
2014 - 318th (73.6 points/game)
2013 - 326th (77.8 points/game)
2012 - 247th (69.7 points/game)
2011 - 207th (68.3 points/game)
2010 - 175th (68.2 points/game)

Opponents Points from 3 Pointers
2015 - 278th (23.4 points/game)
2014 - 157 (18.6 points/game)
2013 - 310 (22.1 points/game)
2012 - 255 (20.1 points/game)
2011 - 231 (19.7 points/game)
2010 - 133 (17.8 points/game)

Some telling signs in these stats. Our defense has been atrocious as of late. It looks to be on the rebound (no pun intended), but we can't afford to slip back down to where we were the last few seasons.

BYU entered the WCC in 2011 and 2011 was a great season for us defensively with Davies, Hartsock, Abouo, Carlino, and Winder getting it done defensively. We ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, gave up just 68 points per game, and held opponents to under 20 pts/game from 3 pointers. Not surprisingly, 2011/2012 season was the last season BYU won a game in the NCAA tournament (yes, I know it was a play-in game, but it was a win nonetheless).

Likewise, it's not surprising BYU's Sweet 16 run of '10 carried with it a potent combination of an efficient offense and a top 35 defense, something that's eluded us since.

With the old MWC group graduating, BYU's defense took a nose dive in 2012. A huge nose dive. To make matter's worse, it was against "weaker" teams. In short, our defense sucked for 3 years and it's barely on the mend.

The observation that BYU's perimeter defense is porous is accurate. While I was surprised to see we only gave up 18.6 pts/game from 3 pointers last season, I wasn't surprised to see how many we gave up this season and in the other seasons post MWC. Since joining the WCC, we've gotten worse at defending the 3. Now, this could also mean, given the guard-heavy nature of the WCC, our opponents take more 3s, but we certainly haven't figured out how to defend the perimeter.

Defense wins championships. Rose needs to get back to playing top 35 defense and he needs to start with defending the perimeter. To do that he needs to ditch the zone and play man, which requires speed on defense.

[Brayden Green]

I think that our defensive problems at guard are graduating, and we will be pretty solid from here on out. I don't see any problem going to man at the 1 and 2 position. We might have problems with quicker 3s, because our starting small forward is mission bound. We will have no problem at the 4 and 5 spot with Mika, Dastrup, and Childs playing heavy minutes, and Davis and potentially Kaufusi coking off the bench. This might be our best defensive team ever when all is said and done.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]

[BYULV]

I'm not worried about offense. Rose's teams always know how to score. I'm worried about defense.

Defense Efficiency Rankings:
2015 - 50th (0.961)
2014 - 190th (1.004)
2013 - 155th (1.017)
2012 - 119th (0.962)
2011 - 28th (0.915)
2010 - 32nd (0.929)

Opponents Points Per Game
2015 - 199th (73.3 points/game)
2014 - 318th (73.6 points/game)
2013 - 326th (77.8 points/game)
2012 - 247th (69.7 points/game)
2011 - 207th (68.3 points/game)
2010 - 175th (68.2 points/game)

Opponents Points from 3 Pointers
2015 - 278th (23.4 points/game)
2014 - 157 (18.6 points/game)
2013 - 310 (22.1 points/game)
2012 - 255 (20.1 points/game)
2011 - 231 (19.7 points/game)
2010 - 133 (17.8 points/game)

Some telling signs in these stats. Our defense has been atrocious as of late. It looks to be on the rebound (no pun intended), but we can't afford to slip back down to where we were the last few seasons.

BYU entered the WCC in 2011 and 2011 was a great season for us defensively with Davies, Hartsock, Abouo, Carlino, and Winder getting it done defensively. We ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, gave up just 68 points per game, and held opponents to under 20 pts/game from 3 pointers. Not surprisingly, 2011/2012 season was the last season BYU won a game in the NCAA tournament (yes, I know it was a play-in game, but it was a win nonetheless).

Likewise, it's not surprising BYU's Sweet 16 run of '10 carried with it a potent combination of an efficient offense and a top 35 defense, something that's eluded us since.

With the old MWC group graduating, BYU's defense took a nose dive in 2012. A huge nose dive. To make matter's worse, it was against "weaker" teams. In short, our defense sucked for 3 years and it's barely on the mend.

The observation that BYU's perimeter defense is porous is accurate. While I was surprised to see we only gave up 18.6 pts/game from 3 pointers last season, I wasn't surprised to see how many we gave up this season and in the other seasons post MWC. Since joining the WCC, we've gotten worse at defending the 3. Now, this could also mean, given the guard-heavy nature of the WCC, our opponents take more 3s, but we certainly haven't figured out how to defend the perimeter.

Defense wins championships. Rose needs to get back to playing top 35 defense and he needs to start with defending the perimeter. To do that he needs to ditch the zone and play man, which requires speed on defense.

Not really disagreeing with your assessment, but you can only play man as you said with speed on defense. We have been on the slow side the past few years which forces Rose to play zone a lot of the time. I think if he had his way, we would play man most of the time. But you can only play with the guys you've got, and we've got mostly slow defenders.

[E-Zone15]

I was thinking about this today...

My projected starters are:
PG- TJ Haws 6' 4" 175
SG- Nick Emery 6' 2" 185
SF- Elijah Bryant 6' 5" 210
PF- Kyle Davis 6' 8" 225, but could also see Payton Dastrup 6' 10" 230 taking this job
C- Eric Mika 6' 10" 230

I've heard a lot of people saying Elijah Bryant starting at the PG, maybe because he played PG at Elon. But IMO, that is not his true position and the numbers at Elon kind of show it (89 assists vs 115 turnovers). Others have Nick at the PG, sure Nick can play PG and did his freshman year at Lone Peak, but TJ played the PG Nick's Soph, Jr, and Sr years at Lone Peak. TJ had over 100 assists more than Nick did in their Lone Peak careers. Both can shot the 3 ball Nick made 269 3's at Lone Peak and TJ had 264. FWIW, Zac Seljaas made 217 3's at Bountiful High School.
So I really see TJ Haws playing the PG for BYU, just return home on the 29th:
https://youtu.be/VrDoq02yBX0

Elijah Bryant 6' 5" 210 has the size and strength to play the SF for BYU:
https://youtu.be/49WVwaUdTL4

Payton Dastrup 6' 10" 230 has the size and strength like Mika, but he also has a nice mid-range to 3pt shooting range:
https://youtu.be/k1CyXMDPSfg

Eric Mika 6' 10" 230, I kind of had forgot Eric's game:
https://youtu.be/yzqTW4PyzNA

The other 2 added players to the roster this Fall will be...
Steven Beo 6' 3" 175 committed to walking-on at BYU rather than taking a scholarship from Washington, Boise St, Utah St, Eastern Washington, and Central Washington:
https://youtu.be/Su7hDg_HOQ8

Yoeli Childs 6' 8" 225:
https://youtu.be/yBcheW5ulW8

Top 100 recruits on the 2016-17 BYU team---
Nick Emery 6' 2" 185--- #45 by ESPN.com, #79 by Scout.com, and #89 by Rivals.com
Eric Mika 6' 10" 230--- #28 by ESPN.com, #37 in Scout.com, and #49 by Rivals.com
TJ Haws 6' 4" 175--- #67 by ESPN.com, #57 by Scout.com, and #70 by Rivals.com
Payton Dastrup 6' 10" 230--- #98 by ESPN.com and #100th by Rivals.com
Yoeli Childs 6' 8" 225--- #50 by ESPN.com

[E-Zone15]

The class of Gavin Baxter, Connor Harding, and Yoeli Childs was kind of odd, because the different ranking they were getting from the 3 different main serves.
Connor Harding 6' 6" 185 was rated in ESPN.com's Top 100 this last Summer at #99 (since then he is not in their Top 100). He is still a 4 star ESPN recruit and a 3 star recruit in the other two services.
Yoeli Childs 6' 8" 225 was rated in ESPN.com's Top 100 at #55 the same time as Connor last Summer, but has now move to #50, but is a 3 star recruit in the other two services.
Gavin Baxter 6' 9" 195 was getting all the love from Scout.com Top 100 at #58 during the Summer and is still #58, he is now also in at #65 for Rivals.com Top 100, and 4 star recruit for ESPN (but not in their Top 100).

Needless to say all three recruits should be very good, just find it a little odd with Connor Harding and Yoeli Childs looking so good to ESPN.com, but so much to Scout.com & Rivals.com. Then ESPN.com was the only service that Gavin Baxter didn't make it into their Top 100 (firm in the other two at #58 & 65), but they do have him rated at 4 stars and normally 4 star recruits don't go much past the Top 100.

[Gunk]

I'm not worried about offense. Rose's teams always know how to score. I'm worried about defense.

Defense Efficiency Rankings:
2015 - 50th (0.961)
2014 - 190th (1.004)
2013 - 155th (1.017)
2012 - 119th (0.962)
2011 - 28th (0.915)
2010 - 32nd (0.929)

Opponents Points Per Game
2015 - 199th (73.3 points/game)
2014 - 318th (73.6 points/game)
2013 - 326th (77.8 points/game)
2012 - 247th (69.7 points/game)
2011 - 207th (68.3 points/game)
2010 - 175th (68.2 points/game)

Opponents Points from 3 Pointers
2015 - 278th (23.4 points/game)
2014 - 157 (18.6 points/game)
2013 - 310 (22.1 points/game)
2012 - 255 (20.1 points/game)
2011 - 231 (19.7 points/game)
2010 - 133 (17.8 points/game)

Some telling signs in these stats. Our defense has been atrocious as of late. It looks to be on the rebound (no pun intended), but we can't afford to slip back down to where we were the last few seasons.

BYU entered the WCC in 2011 and 2011 was a great season for us defensively with Davies, Hartsock, Abouo, Carlino, and Winder getting it done defensively. We ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, gave up just 68 points per game, and held opponents to under 20 pts/game from 3 pointers. Not surprisingly, 2011/2012 season was the last season BYU won a game in the NCAA tournament (yes, I know it was a play-in game, but it was a win nonetheless).

Likewise, it's not surprising BYU's Sweet 16 run of '10 carried with it a potent combination of an efficient offense and a top 35 defense, something that's eluded us since.

With the old MWC group graduating, BYU's defense took a nose dive in 2012. A huge nose dive. To make matter's worse, it was against "weaker" teams. In short, our defense sucked for 3 years and it's barely on the mend.

The observation that BYU's perimeter defense is porous is accurate. While I was surprised to see we only gave up 18.6 pts/game from 3 pointers last season, I wasn't surprised to see how many we gave up this season and in the other seasons post MWC. Since joining the WCC, we've gotten worse at defending the 3. Now, this could also mean, given the guard-heavy nature of the WCC, our opponents take more 3s, but we certainly haven't figured out how to defend the perimeter.

Defense wins championships. Rose needs to get back to playing top 35 defense and he needs to start with defending the perimeter. To do that he needs to ditch the zone and play man, which requires speed on defense.

Not really disagreeing with your assessment, but you can only play man as you said with speed on defense. We have been on the slow side the past few years which forces Rose to play zone a lot of the time. I think if he had his way, we would play man most of the time. But you can only play with the guys you've got, and we've got mostly slow defenders.

True. Very true. My main point is the biggest issue facing Rose is defense. When BYU has a top 35 defense, good things happen.

[ Post made via Mobile Device ]