Scheduling and the Boise St model

[Fido]

BYU needs to hire a head coach with real street cred in order to hire the top level assistant coaches you are talking about. Do you really think that Sitaki-type head coach is going to be able to bring in top quality assistants?

BYU already is an unofficial Mountain West member with 6 conference teams on the schedule: Utah State, Boise, San Jose State, Fresno, UNLV and Hawaii. The Cougars just aren't eligible to win the conference championship.

2011: 3 Utah State, Hawaii, San Jose State
2012: 4 Utah State, Boise State, Hawaii, San Jose State
2013: 3 Utah State, Boise State, Nevada
2014: 4 Utah State, Boise State, Nevada, UNLV
2015: 4 Utah State, Boise State, San Jose State, Fresno State
2016: 2 Utah State, Boise State
2017: 6 Utah State, Boise State, San Jose State, Fresno State, UNLV, Hawaii
2018: 2 Utah State, Boise State
2019: 3 Utah State, Boise State, San Diego State
2020: 3 Utah State, Boise State, San Diego State

I always laugh when people use this argument--BYU has 6 games against the MWC so they might as well be in the MWC so they are eligible to win the conference championship. But if you look, BYU typically only averages less than 4 games per season against the MWC since going independent. The UNLV game would have been in 2015 if the schedule hadn't been juggled to make room for Missouri @ Arrowhead Stadium. If they were in the MWC conference, you would have 8 annual games against MWC teams.

The Boise State scheduling model was built for the BCS era when they had a couple highly successful big name coaches. They have fallen off a bit from their peak, the BCS system has gone away and the new system makes it very tough for any non-P5 school to make a "big" bowl game. I don't know that trying to mimic that model is a valid one going forward.

[Cougarfan87]

Also, BSU has had a lot of players go to the NFL over the years. Their success wasn't just a dumbed-down schedule. They had a fantastic head coach and a lot of talent in the skill positions.

[mormonrasta]

I find this topic very interesting. We need to schedule to support our goals. The question is what is the goal for the football program?

Do we want to play in NY6 games? Then we need to join a G5 conference. This is the clearest and most direct way to do that. The highest ranked G5 conference champ goes to a NY6 bowl. So if the goal is to play in one of those games, that's what we need to do.

Do we want to play for a National Championship? We probably need to schedule at a higher level than we do now. Remember, the committee gives preference to conference champions. We need to be demonstrably better than most conference champions. Playing 4, 5, or 6 P5 teams a year won't cut it.

Do we simply want to finish ranked routinely? We can do that as an independent, but we need to schedule like our WAC/MWC days. This means 1 or 2 P5 caliber teams and a bunch of G5s. Please consult the 1996, 2001, 2006, 2007, and 2009 schedules for reference.

Our current schedules with our recruiting philosophy, coaching hiring philosophy, and our facilities commitment does not lend itself to any of these goals. We are kind of stuck in no man's land.

[snoscythe]

Anyone remember how far "Any one, any time, any where!" scheduling got Fresno State?

Me neither....

[BroncoBot]

It wasn't very far...

[YNot]

I posit that Boise St. followed the "BYU model" for scheduling - from the '80's and '90's. Play one or two "power" programs in the OOC and then win the WAC. Then, you have a nice and shiny win-loss record, a nice ranking, get a quality bowl opponent and make a name for yourself on the national stage. Of course coaching is a significant factor, but go compare BYU's successes, bowls, and list of NFL players in the '80's and '90's to Boise St. in the '00 and '10's.

The scheduling similarities are interesting.

I do wonder what the current goals are for BYU's football program. The publicly-stated goals when we announced independence were: (1) exposure; and (2) fan access. IMO, BYU has met these goals in spades. We have the ESPN deal, which gets BYU on national TV almost weekly - except when we play at MWC non-Boise opponents and have to play on CBSSN. We have played quality programs from all over the country. BYU fans everywhere have been able to watch the team in person and on television. We have rubbed shoulders with huge fan bases, like Michigan, Nebraska, Texas, LSU, Notre Dame, Michigan St., WVU, UCLA, etc. - and thanks to competitive games - and Boney Fuller - we have P5-esque prestige with most national media and fan bases.

BUT - because of our sub-.500 record against quality opponents, we hardly ever sniff the rankings any more, there's virtually no opportunity (or merit) for a quality bowl game, and there is much fan apathy by October. Though, I think we may glamorize the G5's NY6 access. How many MWC or AAC championship would BYU have earned in the last 5 years? How many NY6 bowl games would BYU have earned?

One hint is that BYU is 2-3 versus Boise St. in that span - so that likely erases at least 3 of the opportunities.

2016 - WMU (13-0) v. BYU (8-4; 4-1 against regular season G5 opponents and lost to Boise).
2015 - Houston (12-1) v. BYU (9-3;
2014 - Boise St.(11-2 - beat BYU 55-30)
2013 - UCF (11-1)[BCS]
2012 - Louisville (11-1)[BCS]

[Mars]

BYU's current goal is obviously reach. The school wants to be seen, by members and non-members, both inside and outside of the country. This matters more than conference championships, the overall record, and game days/times. They want as many games as possible on as big a network as possible.

This is great for BYU fans outside of Utah. Those in Utah don't get as great a benefit, but everyone can recognize the massive ESPN cash increase. Not enough to keep up with the PAC12, but enough to outdistance the MWC over time.

[BroncoBot]

BYU's current goal is obviously reach. The school wants to be seen, by members and non-members, both inside and outside of the country. This matters more than conference championships, the overall record, and game days/times. They want as many games as possible on as big a network as possible.

This is great for BYU fans outside of Utah. Those in Utah don't get as great a benefit, but everyone can recognize the massive ESPN cash increase. Not enough to keep up with the PAC12, but enough to outdistance the MWC over time.

Until ESPN is bled dry and gone.

[KingCoug]

Exposure isn't exactly a good thing if you're losing more than you're winning. Especially if you're getting embarrassed like we did against LSU.

Those BYU fans who want a national title to be the goal need to realize that BYU would have to schedule an absolute murderer's row of P5 teams (at least 10) with several of them being top 25 teams. And we'd have to go undefeated, winning many of those games very convincingly. Because we'd also be fighting an inherent P5 bias where the powers that be will want to put an undefeated or even 1 loss P5 team into the playoff before an undefeated BYU.

That then brings up the question of how likely is it that BYU could do this? Especially with the limits on recruiting, the comparatively low pay to coaches, etc. The odds are astronomical.

[Mars]

Good thing ESPN doesn't care if we lose. They do want us to play entertaining, exciting games though. Low scoring affairs and blowouts don't keep viewers dialed in.