Expectations for Tanner

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Expectations for Tanner

Post by byufan4ever » Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:24 am

Yesterday on BYU SN Blaine Fowler outlined his expectations for Tanner for this season. He specifically said that he wants to see 65% completion %, 10 yards per attempt (not completion), and 2 - 2.5 TD-INT ratio.

What do you guys think? Is this fair? Achievable? I think with our front loaded schedule his stats will be quite a bit below that; maybe by the end of the season with the weaker competition he might reach it, but I have to say I'm doubtful. I hope he does though. That would be awesome.

They also stated that since 2010 (I think) the QB that began the season (game #1) as the backup has ended up starting 40% of the games during the season. This is mostly attributed to Nelson's and Hill's injuries. But it begs the question: do you have faith in any of our other QBs? (and we actually have a lot of QBs on this roster)

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Re: Expectations for Tanner

Post by hawkwing » Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:31 am

I think 2-2.5 TD to INT ratio is laughably under performing. A 4 TD to INT ratio is what my goal is for a QB. Yes, it's high, but it's reachable and it's a very good indicator of success.

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Re: Expectations for Tanner

Post by byufan4ever » Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:37 am

hawkwing wrote:I think 2-2.5 TD to INT ratio is laughably under performing. A 4 TD to INT ratio is what my goal is for a QB. Yes, it's high, but it's reachable and it's a very good indicator of success.
I don't know. Max Hall was a great QB with great stats, right? His best season he had 35-14 which is a 2.5 ratio. Even Detmer's best season was 35-12 which is 2.9. So 4.0 is way too high!

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Re: Expectations for Tanner

Post by hawkwing » Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:47 am

byufan4ever wrote:
hawkwing wrote:I think 2-2.5 TD to INT ratio is laughably under performing. A 4 TD to INT ratio is what my goal is for a QB. Yes, it's high, but it's reachable and it's a very good indicator of success.
I don't know. Max Hall was a great QB with great stats, right? His best season he had 35-14 which is a 2.5 ratio. Even Detmer's best season was 35-12 which is 2.9. So 4.0 is way too high!
Detmer was actually a very poor QB when it came to interceptions, Max Hall was very good, but not elite. I think 4 is exactly the level of the highest level elite QBs, which is what my goal is for.

4+ - Elite
3-4 - Exceptional
2.5-3 Very good
2-2.5 Adequate
1.5 - 2 Poor
<1.5 Terrible

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Re: Expectations for Tanner

Post by BoiseBYU » Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:08 am

hawkwing wrote:
byufan4ever wrote:
hawkwing wrote:I think 2-2.5 TD to INT ratio is laughably under performing. A 4 TD to INT ratio is what my goal is for a QB. Yes, it's high, but it's reachable and it's a very good indicator of success.
I don't know. Max Hall was a great QB with great stats, right? His best season he had 35-14 which is a 2.5 ratio. Even Detmer's best season was 35-12 which is 2.9. So 4.0 is way too high!
Detmer was actually a very poor QB when it came to interceptions, Max Hall was very good, but not elite. I think 4 is exactly the level of the highest level elite QBs, which is what my goal is for.

4+ - Elite
3-4 - Exceptional
2.5-3 Very good
2-2.5 Adequate
1.5 - 2 Poor
<1.5 Terrible
Fowler was stating "expectations," which is different from one's goals or hopes for the kid. I'm not sure we see elite performance, given our schedule and WRs. I hope for elite level play, but I think a Fowler's expectations might be more in line?

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Re: Expectations for Tanner

Post by hawkwing » Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:27 am

BoiseBYU wrote:
hawkwing wrote:
byufan4ever wrote:
hawkwing wrote:I think 2-2.5 TD to INT ratio is laughably under performing. A 4 TD to INT ratio is what my goal is for a QB. Yes, it's high, but it's reachable and it's a very good indicator of success.
I don't know. Max Hall was a great QB with great stats, right? His best season he had 35-14 which is a 2.5 ratio. Even Detmer's best season was 35-12 which is 2.9. So 4.0 is way too high!
Detmer was actually a very poor QB when it came to interceptions, Max Hall was very good, but not elite. I think 4 is exactly the level of the highest level elite QBs, which is what my goal is for.

4+ - Elite
3-4 - Exceptional
2.5-3 Very good
2-2.5 Adequate
1.5 - 2 Poor
<1.5 Terrible
Fowler was stating "expectations," which is different from one's goals or hopes for the kid. I'm not sure we see elite performance, given our schedule and WRs. I hope for elite level play, but I think a Fowler's expectations might be more in line?
That is a totally fair point, expectations are different than goals. I would say a 2.5 is a fair expectation.

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Re: Expectations for Tanner

Post by byufan4ever » Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:37 am

Here is how some of the BYU greats have done in these categories that Fowler put out there:
BYU QB Expectations.PNG
I have to say that I'd be very happy if Tanner met these expectations this season against this schedule with these WRs. But I wouldn't be surprised if he falls under this season. Now, next season as a senior? I think he has the potential to put up some monster stats. Despite Tanner being in the program for a number of years (that was Fowler's point) I think we're going to see some growing pains this season.

And do you see how rare that 4.0 TD/INT ratio is? We've had a lot of great QBs. I haven't included them all, but has it happened more than twice?

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Re: Expectations for Tanner

Post by hawkwing » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:09 am

Several years ago during Max Hall's jr or sr year they talked about a 4.0 TD/INT ratio at the Big Blue Bash and the analysis that they had done on it. Yeah, it's uncommon, but it does happen at BYU and in the rest of college football, that's what makes them elite. If we want a special season it's the level we will have to reach to make it happen.

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Re: Expectations for Tanner

Post by snoscythe » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:35 am

hawkwing wrote:Several years ago during Max Hall's jr or sr year they talked about a 4.0 TD/INT ratio at the Big Blue Bash and the analysis that they had done on it. Yeah, it's uncommon, but it does happen at BYU and in the rest of college football, that's what makes them elite. If we want a special season it's the level we will have to reach to make it happen.
Yeah, but that was Brandon Doman talking about an unstoppable offense, not about expectations. That same off-season Sarkisian was setting a 3-1 ratio as a goal for Jake Locker to prove himself an NFL-caliber QB.

So, based on this thread from years ago, a 3:1 ratio is seen as NFL-prospect caliber performance, and 4:1 was discussed as elite/unstoppable.

I think "expecting" a 4:1 ratio from Tanner is like expecting a playoff berth. I think expecting between 2:1 and 3:1 is more realistic and a very good season for a 2nd year starter. I think that the fact we are playing ball-control run-oriented offense makes ball security that much more important, so I am more concerned with total INTs this season than the ratio. He has to keep that number under 1 per game.

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Re: Expectations for Tanner

Post by BroncoBot » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:51 am

So.... is Tanner going to be the starter?

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