Way too early football predictions?

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UCChris
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Way too early football predictions?

Postby UCChris » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:10 am

Here are my way too early record predictions!

v Portland State - W
v LSU - L
v Utes - W
v Wisconson - L
@ Utah State - W
v Boise State - W
@ Mississippi State - W
@ ECU - W
v San Jose - W
@ Fresno - W
@ UNLV - W
v UMass - W
@ Hawaii - W

Portland State is an easy win.
LSU will be a loss simply because it's too hard of a team too early in the season. Independence scheduling kicking BYU in the butt again.
I don't think Kalani will let the Utes win this year, even if it's through willpower alone.
Wisconson is the same story as LSU; too good, too soon.
BYU will beat USU like always, barring a freak QB injury (knock on wood)
I say Boise State will be a win simply because of the experience BYU will gain from playing LSU, Utah, and WIsconson in the first four weeks.
Mississippi State has played BYU close, but again, experience from the first four weeks...
ECU is the same story as Mississippi State.
And the rest of the season should be pretty easy.

Overall prediction: 11-2, ranked 23-25 in the country.

Edit: I edited this post on my computer, but apparently forgot to save it. I was going to say that BYU generally loses a game that is a complete surprise, so BYU will finish 10-3. Hence my prediction to be 23-25 in the country...
Last edited by UCChris on Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: Way too early football predictions?

Postby scott715 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:31 am

I like that. I expect there will be another loss somewhere in there. 11-2 would be top 20 based on the schedule.



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Re: Way too early football predictions?

Postby SpiffCoug » Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:58 pm

I think we're starting 1-3.


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Re: Way too early football predictions?

Postby UCChris » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:06 pm

scott715 wrote:I like that. I expect there will be another loss somewhere in there. 11-2 would be top 20 based on the schedule.


You think? Aside from BSU, LSU, Wisconson, and the Utes, we aren't playing very stiff competition...

SpiffCoug wrote:I think we're starting 1-3.


I thought that too, but I'll never even consider a loss to Utah. BYU will beat them until proven otherwise... :~(



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Re: Way too early football predictions?

Postby scott715 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 2:24 pm

I think we will be a better team. KS is building something great here.



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Re: Way too early football predictions?

Postby SpiffCoug » Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:06 pm

UCChris wrote:
SpiffCoug wrote:I think we're starting 1-3.


I thought that too, but I'll never even consider a loss to Utah. BYU will beat them until proven otherwise... :~(

Actually BYU does not deserve the benefit of the doubt you're currently affording them. In fact, it should be, BYU will lose to Utah until proven otherwise.

Think about, if you are Tico Fuga or another incoming freshman, the last time could have seen BYU beat Utah, you likely couldn't even pass the sacrament.

Utah winning is currently the default position.


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Re: Way too early football predictions?

Postby UCChris » Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:08 pm

SpiffCoug wrote:
UCChris wrote:
SpiffCoug wrote:I think we're starting 1-3.


I thought that too, but I'll never even consider a loss to Utah. BYU will beat them until proven otherwise... :~(

Actually BYU does not deserve the benefit of the doubt you're currently affording them. In fact, it should be, BYU will lose to Utah until proven otherwise.

Think about, if you are Tico Fuga or another incoming freshman, the last time could have seen BYU beat Utah, you likely couldn't even pass the sacrament.

Utah winning is currently the default position.


I never said that I gave them the benefit of the doubt. I always doubt that BYU will win the Utes. I'm young enough that the first BYU vs Utah football game I remember was 2006. BYU's record against the Pukes hasn't been stellar in the decade since. However, I bleed royal blue, so I'll pick BYU to win; and I'll say there's a chance until the clock hits 00:00. 8)



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Re: Way too early football predictions?

Postby frdbtr » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:19 pm

the 1-3 start is a pretty good realistic opinion. I agree with it. Until I see some toughness from our receivers, I have a hard time believing they will ever beat a team with physical defense like what utah plays.



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Re: Way too early football predictions?

Postby scott715 » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:13 am



10-3



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Re: Way too early football predictions?

Postby YNot » Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:16 pm

UCChris wrote:
scott715 wrote:I like that. I expect there will be another loss somewhere in there. 11-2 would be top 20 based on the schedule.


You think? Aside from BSU, LSU, Wisconson, and the Utes, we aren't playing very stiff competition...


If BYU is 11-2, we will be in the top-15.

LSU, Wisconsin, Utah, Boise St., and Mississippi St. will be considered quality wins or losses. And 11-2 means we beat at least 3 of them. ECU will likely be a solid win (or loss) too. ECU has recent wins over Virginia Tech, NC State, UNC, etc. Hawaii and UMass will likely be bowl-eligible, as could one of Fresno, UNLV, and SJSU.

At the end of the past 5 regular seasons, the lowest a 2-loss P5 team has been ranked is #16 (WVU in 2016 and Ok St. in 2015). But, more often the lowest 2-loss P5 team is in the top-12.

Boise St. was #19 at 10-2 in 2012 and #20 at 11-2 in 2014; Navy was #21 at 9-2 in 2015.

And that's with only 1 or 2 decent games - '12 and '14 BSU's best wins were against us, both in Boise. They had '12 losses at Michigan St. and to SDSU at home. '14 losses to Ole Miss and Air Force. 2 P5 games per season (including the BYU wins). No other tough games, and still finished in the top-20.

'15 Navy's best wins were over Air Force and Memphis. Lost to Notre Dame and Houston. 9-2 and ranked #21.

Regarding 1-3, I believe Kilani will get the win over the Ewetes this year. So, that's at least 2-2.

Wisconsin will be tough, but they hardly play OOC away from home. Here are the recent results:

2016 - W v. LSU at Lambeau (16-14)
2015 - L v. Alabama in Arlington, TX (17-35)
2014 - L v. LSU in Houston (24-28)
2013 - L at ASU (30-32)
2012 - L at Oregon St. (7-10)

So, we have a chance to steal a narrow-margin win against the Badgers in Provo and start the season 3-1.




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