Passing game struggles. Is this over-reaching?

[SpiffCoug]

The passing game is about timing, consistency and confidence. Those never developed this season. Taysom and the passing game just never got into a rhythm.

Against Arizona, he had just one stretch where he connected on more than 3 consecutive passes (he completed 6 straight to finish the 2nd and start the 3rd qtr).

Against Utah, he never had a stretch where he connected on more than 3 consecutive passes.

Against UCLA, he did have two stretches where he completed 4 straight passes (one in the 3rd qtr and one in the 4th qtr).

Against West Virginia, he never had a stretch where he connected on more than 3 consecutive passes.

Against Toledo, he had a stretch where he completed seven straight passes. (to finish the 3rd qtr and start the 4th)

Against Michigan St, he had just one stretch where he connected on more than 3 consecutive passes (he completed 4 straight, ending w/ a TD in the 3rd qtr).

Against Mississippi St, he had just one stretch where he connected on more than 3 consecutive passes (he completed 7 straight, 6 at the end of the 3rd qtr ending w/ a TD, and his 1st pass on the 4th qtr).

Against Boise St, he did have two stretches where he connected on more than 3 consecutive passes (he completed 7 straight, and 5 straight in the 4th qtr).

Against Cincinnati, he never had a stretch where he connected on more than 3 consecutive passes.

Against Southern Utah, he did have two stretches where he connected on more than 3 consecutive passes (he completed 4 straight in the 2nd qtr, and a season long 9 straight in the 3rd qtr).

Against Massachusetts, he did have two stretches where he connected on more than 3 consecutive passes (he completed 4 straight in the 1st qtr, and a 5 straight in the 2nd qtr).

Against Utah St, he had just one stretch where he connected on more than 3 consecutive passes (he completed 4 straight, in the 2nd qtr).

So that's three games where he never strung more than 3 consecutive passes together. And five games where he had just one such stretch. And he had just one stretch in the 1st quarter and it wasn't until the 11th game of the season. And just a total of 13 stretches of stringing together more than 3 passes in a row. How is the offense supposed to get going with that kind of inconsistency in the passing game?

For some comparison, Tanner completed 10 straight against Southern Utah (his first game of the season) and had a four pass stretch to finish the 2nd and start the 3rd against Wyoming.

Last year, Taysom had three stretches against Nebraska (he never had a 3 such stretches in a game this year) in the first half. Tanner had one vs Nebraska, two vs Boise St, five vs UCLA, one vs Michigan, three vs Connecticut (including one stetch of 12 straight), two vs East Carolina (including a stretch of 13 straight), two vs Cincinnati, two stretches vs Wagner (and Beau Hoge a stretch 5 straight), two stretches vs San Jose St, one stretch vs Missouri, two stretches vs Fresno, three stretches (including the season long stretch of 17 straight), and one stretch vs Utah. That's a total of 27 stretches.

It really shouldn't come as any surprise that the offense scored 54 more points last year, gained 27 more 1st Downs through the air, threw 11 more touchdowns and had 26 more plays of 20 yards in length.

The passing game starts with the QB and BYU had poor QB play - especially in the passing game this year.

[snoscythe]

Yes, it's overreaching. Sorry to say, but I think this analysis is very silly, and somewhathe designed to support a conclusion that doesn't have any basis in reality. For someone who's a PER-acolyte, I'm surprised you didn't just like at Tanner's Wyoming PER (115) compare it to Taysom's season PER (116) and stop there.

Just remember that last year vs. this year is apples and oranges with the change in offenses, so I ignore your points comparing the last two years.

I also discount SUU as an unfortunate high school team on the schedule.

So if you're comparing Tanner and Taysom with the arbitrary 3-passes-in-a-row metric, you're putting an awful lot of weight behind Tanner's single 4-pass streak against Wyoming (and against a laughable opponent in SUUHS). I don't know of anyone who watched that bowl game and came away thinking that Taysom was the problem anymore, because Tanner looked very average.

I think BYU's problem this year was that we were trying to install a new offense we do not have the personnel for; namely tight ends, offensive linemen, and receivers. I may be in the minority, but I give the coaches kudos for sticking with their long-term plan, even if it looked ugly this first season. The kids they are recruiting now know that this coaching staff is committed to this pro-style offense and that they will have a lot of leeway and opportunity to play without the danger of this turning into a spread zone-read team. Their long-term approach will pay dividends in the recruiting game, and I think we see rapid improvement next year.

[SpiffCoug]

I just thought it was interesting that (even against Wyoming) there just wasn't ever really any point in the season in which the passing game really got going and had a chance to generate consistency.

It probably was an over-reach. Maybe this week, I'll go back and look at previous seasons and see if there is anything to this. For instance, did Nelson and Heaps also struggle to string passes together? Did Beck and Hall? Might be interesting.

[EM_Puma]

I'll be interesting in seeing what you find because it just felt like you describe, that the passing game never got on-track--especially for someone who has followed BYU for 40 years now. I'd like to know if my feeling is just off.

It felt too like most of Taysom's interceptions were often off of tipped balls where it didn't hit the receiver correctly.

[TulaneVandyRiceCoug]

This is an interest stat, the count of 3-in-a-row completions. I think it does give a decent sense of passing consistency, but yeah the YoY comparisons muddle things up.

I would be very interested in the count per QB, over the number of games played. I'm guessing that Hall and Beck had it going the most for recent history. I wish there was a way to account for opponent difficulty better. We've leveled up since the MWC days, generally. For the offseason, the passing game sync-up needs attention.

[frdbtr]

The passing game never got on track because Ty Detmer never had confidence in it and didn't consistently go to it in his play calling. When he did, the receivers ran wrong routes, the Offensive line was piss poor at pass blocking and when the passes were delivered accurately the receivers had a tendency to tip the ball up for an easy pick 6 interception. Until this gets fixed, all our QB’s are going to look very average.

[snoscythe]

To be clear--I agree that the passing game never got going this year. What I disagree with is the implication that it was a Taysom issue. It was an offensive issue in general. Yes, Taysom could have been better, but the receiving corps (esp. tight ends and slot receivers) and Oline (even though the Oline exceeded my expectations) were a bigger issue.

Ty Detmer is transitioning BYU back to a pro-style offense so that BYU can recruit pro-level talent. There is a reason why 95% of schools don't try to run pro-style west coast offenses any more -- they are a lot more complex and require a lot more from every player on the team. We had a group of receivers who never really seemed to learn how to read zone vs. man coverage and were therefore running the wrong routes. That trickled down to the QB position where both QBs didn't have full trust in the receivers and would hold onto the ball to wait for the receivers to make their breaks to verify they were going where they thought they were, which meant that often by the time the receiver was verified to be open in the right route, the defense was in the backfield because our Oline is built for the zone-read, not the west coast pass protection. Every piece was a bit off.

With all of that. I firmly believe that Tanner Mangum holds the future of BYU football in his hands, just not for the reason most people might think. Ty Detmer's entire philosophy is built around feedback he received from NFL scouts -- under Robert Anae, BYU was not producing ANY pro-caliber athletes. They weren't prepared physically, mentally, nor did they have skills refined to that level. That is what the NFL scouts told Ty, and that is what Whittingham was telling recruits in their living rooms. Ty knows that to return BYU to greatness, they need to put emphasis on preparing every recruit for a possible future in the NFL. Tanner is the trial balloon for Ty's philosophy. If he can turn out a first two day draft prospect in Tanner Mangum, that would reverse a downward trend since John Beck (recruited by Crowton) left the program and would validate his philosophy of building for the NFL to win on the recruiting trail. As Tanner goes, so goes Ty and the future of BYU's offense.

[SpiffCoug]

Here's what I have.

In 2014, there were 30 stretches with a season long of 9.
In 2013, there were 17 stretches with a season long of 11.
In 2012, there were 23 stretches with a season long of 10.
In 2011, there were 20 stretches with a season long of 10.
In 2010, there were 17 stretches with a season long of 6.
In 2009, there were 28 stretches with a season long of 11.

I can't find my data for 2006, 2007 or 2008. But I do have the first four games of 2005, which saw 10 stretches with a long of 9.

[frdbtr]

Here's what I have.

In 2014, there were 30 stretches with a season long of 9.
In 2013, there were 17 stretches with a season long of 11.
In 2012, there were 23 stretches with a season long of 10.
In 2011, there were 20 stretches with a season long of 10.
In 2010, there were 17 stretches with a season long of 6.
In 2009, there were 28 stretches with a season long of 11.

I can't find my data for 2006, 2007 or 2008. But I do have the first four games of 2005, which saw 10 stretches with a long of 9.

What's the common thread here? All of those years had at least 1 receiver that was reliable and could consistently get himself open. this year we had none.

[Cougarfan87]

The passing game never got on track because Ty Detmer never had confidence in it and didn't consistently go to it in his play calling. When he did, the receivers ran wrong routes, the Offensive line was piss poor at pass blocking and when the passes were delivered accurately the receivers had a tendency to tip the ball up for an easy pick 6 interception. Until this gets fixed, all our QB’s are going to look very average.

Yes and yes.