Alright a quick update on ND, I am sure I will miss something. I believe BYU will win, but it will be too close to call. I love BYU, I grew up with season tickets, my family are all alums, we are Cougar Club, without going into details we are closely tied to the program.....that being said this is the one time a year/decade I am a "black sheep" in my family, ward, with friends I grew up with as I root for ND. I wanted to note my slight leaning for this game.
ND is beat up and was beat up to start the year. ND was over ranked to start the year (I have found everything regarding ND is overhyped, we tend to be ranked too high or too low, we are either the best or the worst by the media).
Player departures from the 2012:
Offense:
QB - Kicked out for year (Golson), but you will see the same QB you faced last year in his only start in 2012 was against BYU. Tommy Rees is a good kid and smart, but he tries to make throws he cannot make. We have not capable back-ups who are ready to play.
RB- Both key RBs from last year are on NFL rosters. RB with most upside who is just getting in the swing of things is a true freshman.
OL - We lost a few guys who were in NFL camps.
TE - Lost the top TE drafted in the NFL - huge loss
WR - No major losses, just huge additions who are freshman.....still a year away from where we need to be
Defense:
DL - We lost a key player, now on the Ravens (Kapron). We had Tuitt back and Nix, both have fought injuries all year; both may be first round picks but they have not played that way due to injuries.
LB - Manti and loss of players due to career ending injuries. We have been decimated here. Will discuss below.
Secondary - DB's are the same, huge loss in safety's.
As you can see when you lose your starting QB (this was supposed to be his first real year with the reigns off - he would have been a Sophmore), NFL TE, NFL RB's, NFL dlineman and saftety.....it is natural to take a step back. As much as people no this board dislike Manti, he was the leader of the defense and we have yet to find the new leader.....Manti made every play a level above their heads.
Injuries:
Offense:
QB: Elite 11 signee got mono to start the year and will not play. We have no real back-up, other potential back-up who was a Freshman last year and was the #1 drop back QB in his class transferred when it was clear Golson (QB who was kicked out) was going to be the man
Oline: We have two OL out for the year. Right side of our line are two true freshman
RB: Top recruit at RB is out for the year.
TE: Nothing major
WR: Davaris Daniels has been hampered by hamstring issues
Defense = Decimated
DLine: Tuitt (likely first round pick) had offseason back surgery and is barely back, but has not gotten help due to other injuries.
Nix (potential first rounder) missed several games, came back vs Pitt but was ineffective due to knee injuries.
Kona Schwenke (former BYU commit) is hurt and did not play last game vs Pitt....we will likely play vs BYU but will be hindered.
Day, re-injured high ankle sprain, will not be 100%.
Isaq Williams - missed Pitt game, likely vs BYU but will be hampered.
Our entire line is depleted, against Navy we were playing a 4th string DL. We went from one of the best line in the country to not having one player healthy.
LB: this was a new crew to start the year.
Ben Councell - knee out for the year.
Jarrett Grace - knee out for the year.
Danny Spond - "retired", head issues.
Tony Springman - out for the year.
The healthy LB's we have are slow and if spread out can be taken advantage of. We can hit, and match better against the power run.
As you can see BYU should be able to run, spread these guys out and Hill should get some time and should see a slower/hindered team.
Secondary: Nothing major, other than being exposed when they don't have one of the nations top front 7 to help them.
Shumate: Hammy, will play
Collinsworth: Hammy, will play
Without a doubt this is BYU's for the taking, if they lose it is because of bad coaching or ND taking advantage of situations. BYU can and will move the ball against ND, Hill should look like a start. If the oline can protect Hill BYU's WRs will get open and BYU will score. If ND makes BYU one dimensional, I would try to take away the run and force BYU to throw and hope we can contain the WR's. EVERYONE has moved the ball on us except USC, like I said traditional offenses is what we are suited for. Best player: watch Jaylon Smith, he is a true freshman and he will be known nationally before he leaves ND....he is legit.
On defense, you will get a few chances to get INTs from Rees. Happens every game, if you take advantage you win.....each loss the other team took advantage, in our wins the other team did not, simple. Our WR's (exception Jones) are very young, but hugely talented and they will get open and Rees will go deep. If we can run and the Oline gives Rees time we will move the ball all over BYU.....if you can stop the run and force Rees to throw we will move the ball, but there will be dumb mistakes and Rees will have a long day.
In short, I expect BYU to have success moving the ball given over half the defense is "out" or greatly impacted by injuries (including every top player). I could see ND moving the ball easily, I could also see BYU shutting the run down and forcing Rees into dumb decisions. I think there will be scoring, but see BYU winning if both coaching staffs take advantages of the competitions weaknesses and both teams play to par.
I know BYU has injuries, but this is not close. ND is truly decimated on defense, I have never seen them hampered by so many injuries. If BYU does not move the ball, I will be excited for ND's back-ups but furious at BYU's coaching staff for not making easy adjustments.
Note: for all my other ND alums and friends, they look at the season as being over and they are mildly interested in the game. The crowd will be tame, they are giving away tickets (in fact I just sold mine and have 4 more if anyone wants to buy some). The view is we are prepping young guys for next year, but nothing impactful as our QB is not back until January and we are bidding our time. Lastly ND plays bad at home under Kelly, every near loss was at home (underperforming in several: Pitt, BYU, Michigan). The hope I hear from ND fans is that Kelly pulls out a way to get the team fired up to take us into the next year on a high note (heading to Stanford) similar to our 24-3 over Utah (good team, most thought would win, down team and Kelly turned them around).
Either way best of luck to the Cougars, it is like seeing two children play each other.
Note: Too busy to edit or spell check so apologies in advance for quick typing!
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