CougarCorner

Just read a report that Mitt is being considered for Secretary of State (along with Nikki Haley of South Carolina and others). This could be good for Trump to build bridges with the establishment. I think Mitt would be better at Secretary of the Treasury.

Post Mortem: The failure of the polls this cycle is going to be a hot topic in the industry over the next few months. This was a real black eye and trust will be in short supply. There are several reasons why this may have occurred, some of which were have been suggested by people on this board. Her...

As my predictions failed miserably, looks like I will be keeping my day job. My only consolation is that all the national pundits prediction were worse than mine. Maybe I should look into starting a polling company.

I will have a post a post mortem later.

Based off the simulations that I ran, and looking at the actual results, Trump will be President, so long as he takes Maine's second district. If not, it is a tie that goes to the House and Trump will win there. Trump will would have to lose Alaska, Georgia or Arizona to allow Hillary to win.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Bgvop.

Hillary 49%, Trump 46%

Tomorrow is election day, and as current polling is showing, Trump has .47 % chance of winning tomorrow. (.09% chance of a tie). Hillary will likely be the President in 2017. While Mr. Trump is likely going to fail, the race has tightened quite a bit the last few weeks. Hillary Averages just 287 vot...

I was planning to do it Monday Night, but I might start working on it tonight, depending on how life is going.

Thanks, I've waiting for your update. It is going down to the wire. Trump is sticking to his message of change and anti corruption. Big keys. Now can you model the stock market's reaction afterwards? If I could, I'm in the wrong business. My guess, sell short. Stocks will go down if Trump becomes P...

This week sees much of the same as in the past, with Mr. Trump never winning the election. On a positive note, things have begun to swing back in his direction, with Hillary Clinton only averaging 326, rather the 341 of last week. Mr. Trump will need the momentum to increase if he hopes to break 270...

I just pulled up real clear politics, and they have Minnesota as lean Democrat. My guess is that you are correct, a shift was due to the lack of polling. As for Texas, recent polling has been within the margin of error (Trump +3, +3, +4), but on the outer edges. These results have my methodology mov...