CougarCorner

Re: Political Polling Oct 10, 2016

2016-10-11T16:08:43-06:00

Thanks for doing this. This is impressive.

It's depressing too.

Statistics: Posted by SpiffCoug — Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:08 pm

Re: Political Polling Oct 10, 2016

2016-10-11T07:55:18-06:00

Thanks for doing this. This is impressive.

Statistics: Posted by BoiseBYU — Tue Oct 11, 2016 7:55 am

Re: Political Polling Oct 10, 2016

2016-10-11T06:52:38-06:00

The distributions looks like this:
Min 273
Q1 335
Median 340
Q3 346
Max 390
Mean 339.6
Mode 340

Statistics: Posted by StatsCougar — Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:52 am

Re: Political Polling Oct 10, 2016

2016-10-10T21:11:04-06:00

Wow. What's the median and mode of electoral votes for HRC at this point?

Statistics: Posted by SpiffCoug — Mon Oct 10, 2016 9:11 pm

Political Polling Oct 10, 2016

2016-10-10T20:41:12-06:00

I apologize in advance for no graphics. They are on a different computer that I will not have access until tomorrow. I was able to run to run the first round of analysis for this week. There might be some small tweaks when I get the graphics posted and I will note what they are.

As the polling currently stands, Mr. Trump has a 0% chance of winning, and there is no chance of a tie. (0 out of 100,000 simulated elections. This is the worst showing Mr. Trump has had since I started doing the simulations.) HRC lowest electoral count this week was 273 and she averaged 340. The 340 votes puts her between the amount of votes President Obama received in his two campaigns.

This change is concerning as most of the polls were taken before the locker room comments from Mr. Trump were made public and the second presidential debate. Things may continue to shift way from Mr. Trump.

Among the changes that were seen include North Carolina moving to Lean Hillary, Ohio and Arizona are now toss-ups and Indiana is now only lean Trump.

As polls come in this week, we will see if Mr. Trump can make up any ground that he has lost. In all likelihood, Trump has lost any chance of beating Hillary. The only way that changes if there is some major bomb dropped on the Clinton campaign (with large parts of the media covering for her, that is doubtful.)

Statistics: Posted by StatsCougar — Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:41 pm