There are several reasons for the shift. The first is the amount of polls that are coming in. While many of the polls by themselves would show a toss-up, for a state like Pennsylvania or Virginia, there are enough polls to showing HRC leading that the state is solidly behind her. The second is many of the changes I am seeing are in states that are solidly on one side or the other.
With the map as it currently stands, Donald Trump has to win every toss-up state but Nevada to win the election. My numbers give him narrow leads in three of the five. (Behind in Florida 43.9% to 42.7% and Colorado 40.6% to 39.4%). Of note in Colorado, Gary Johnson is pulling more from HRC the from Donald Trump. He was not in the race, I doubt Colorado would be a toss-up and Hillary Clinton would be almost certain to win.
With the first debate tonight, a large number of polls will likely be released this week. If Mr. Trump is going to make this a fight, he needs to do so to night.
*Methodology notes: Current the second congressional district in Maine has Trump winning. Maine splits there Electoral College Votes based on who wins each Congressional District, with an additional 2 going to the statewide winner. Mississippi is considered a toss-up as there has only been one poll in the past month, that is was fairly close. I highly doubt that it will vote for Hillary.
Statistics: Posted by StatsCougar — Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:50 pm
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